MIRABELLA, STEVEN EDWARD
R Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P80004658- Internal id
b1a1e0cf-8bd1-4b7c-89b2-a19b9ff5004d- Status
- open seat
Elections
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
Committees
- MIRABELLA FOR PRESIDENT β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph β 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | MIRABELLA FOR PRESIDENT | β | candidate_committees |