HARTLOPER, JOSHUA ALLEN

I · president

FEC candidate id: P80006539
Internal id: 840536e0-b355-4746-8644-03aacdbe378b

Elections

2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running
2028 general president — running

Committees

JOSHUA HARTLOPER 2028 FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JOSHUA HARTLOPER 2028 FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES	—		candidate_committees

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