JAMES, NATALIE
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2AR00115- Internal id
e2356845-8224-447c-9de2-936a99e9d025- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arkansas. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 3,049,391 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $60,773 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,225 |
| Income | In poverty | 16.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.479 |
| Race | White alone | 69.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 14.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 9.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 10.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 6.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.5% |
| Household | Family households | 64.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.46 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $188,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $947 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 86.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 10.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $0 | $215 | $5,911 | $0 |
| 2024 | $0 | $0 | $215 | $5,911 | $0 |
| 2022 | $81,481 | $81,266 | $215 | $5,911 | $69,437 |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AR-S β running
Committees
- JAMES FOR ARKANSAS β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF⦠| 24K | $2,900 |
| 2022-11-03 | D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF⦠| 24K | $2,900 |
| 2022-10-20 | LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND | 24K | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS) | contributed_to | $2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS) | contributed_to | $2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JAMES FOR ARKANSAS | β | candidate_committees |