MCGUIRE, MICHAEL MICK
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2AZ00349- Internal id
36599773-570d-4a8d-b1c3-1e9cfdf7607f- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 7,378,838 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $79,964 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $42,503 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.464 |
| Race | White alone | 59.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 31.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 74.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 19.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 56.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.0% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.53 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $394,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,543 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 64.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 66.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $0 | $2,616 | $450,705 | $0 |
| 2024 | $1,099 | $104 | $2,616 | $450,705 | $1,099 |
| 2022 | $2,715,996 | $2,714,376 | $1,620 | $1,141,655 | $1,508,232 |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
Committees
- MCGUIRE FOR ARIZONA β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $60,000 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-18 | SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE | support | $60,000 | Digital Marketing |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-2 |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-07-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-07-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-400 |
| 2022-07-18 | WINRED | 24K | $-20 |
| 2022-07-18 | SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE | 24E | $60,000 |
| 2022-06-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-250 |
| 2022-05-31 | ALLIED PILOTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMM⦠| 24K | $2,500 |
| 2022-05-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-1,975 |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-05-05 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-04-04 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-04-01 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-03-31 | AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC. | 24K | $2,000 |
| 2022-03-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-03-19 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-03-10 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2021-12-03 | WINRED | 24K | $-83 |
| 2021-11-30 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (47)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-400 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-18 | SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE | contributed_to | $60,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-18 | SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE | supports_independently | $60,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-06-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-31 | ALLIED PILOTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,975 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-31 | AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC. | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-10 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2021-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-83 | pas2 | |
| 2021-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-10-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2021-10-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2021-10-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2021-09-21 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2021-09-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-09-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2021-09-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2021-08-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-08-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-08-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2021-07-29 | BADLANDS PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-07-10 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2021-07-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-07-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $250 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $1 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | MCGUIRE FOR ARIZONA | β | candidate_committees |