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MCGUIRE, MICHAEL MICK

R Β· senate

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FEC candidate id
S2AZ00349
Internal id
36599773-570d-4a8d-b1c3-1e9cfdf7607f
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation7,378,838
PeopleMedian age39
IncomeMedian household income$79,964
IncomePer-capita income$42,503
IncomeIn poverty12.5%
IncomeUnemployed5.1%
IncomeGini inequality index0.464
RaceWhite alone59.0%
RaceBlack alone4.6%
RaceAsian alone3.6%
RaceHispanic or Latino31.4%
RaceTwo or more races19.5%
OriginForeign-born13.0%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home74.3%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home19.3%
EducationHigh school or higher56.8%
EducationBachelor's or higher33.3%
EducationAdvanced degree13.0%
HouseholdFamily households64.3%
HouseholdAvg household size2.53
HouseholdNever married (15+)34.1%
HousingMedian home value$394,500
HousingMedian gross rent$1,543
HousingSingle-family detached64.2%
HousingBuilt before 19401.5%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)4.3%
HousingVacant units10.6%
ServiceVeterans (18+)7.9%
HealthWith a disability13.8%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband91.5%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet6.0%
CommuteDrove alone66.8%
CommutePublic transit1.1%
CommuteWorked from home18.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$0$0$2,616$450,705$0
2024$1,099$104$2,616$450,705$1,099
2022$2,715,996$2,714,376$1,620$1,141,655$1,508,232

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$60,000$01

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
2022-07-18SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTUREsupport$60,000Digital Marketing

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-11-24WINRED24K$-2
2022-09-03WINRED24K$-15
2022-09-03WINRED24K$-10
2022-07-24WINRED24K$-100
2022-07-20WINRED24K$-400
2022-07-18WINRED24K$-20
2022-07-18SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE24E$60,000
2022-06-27WINRED24K$-250
2022-05-31ALLIED PILOTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMM…24K$2,500
2022-05-24WINRED24K$-1,975
2022-05-11WINRED24K$-10
2022-05-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-04-15WINRED24K$-5,800
2022-04-15WINRED24K$-25
2022-04-11WINRED24K$-25
2022-04-11WINRED24K$-25
2022-04-11WINRED24K$-25
2022-04-04WINRED24K$-5
2022-04-01WINRED24K$-10
2022-03-31AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC.24K$2,000
2022-03-22WINRED24K$-10
2022-03-19WINRED24K$-10
2022-03-10WINRED24K$-10
2021-12-03WINRED24K$-83
2021-11-30WINRED24K$-25

Connected on the graph

Inbound (47)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
2022-11-24WINREDcontributed_to$-2pas2
2022-09-03WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-03WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-07-24WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-07-20WINREDcontributed_to$-400pas2
2022-07-18WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-07-18SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTUREcontributed_to$60,000pas2
2022-07-18SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTUREsupports_independently$60,000fec_ies
2022-06-27WINREDcontributed_to$-250pas2
2022-05-31ALLIED PILOTS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEcontributed_to$2,500pas2
2022-05-24WINREDcontributed_to$-1,975pas2
2022-05-11WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-05-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-04-15WINREDcontributed_to$-5,800pas2
2022-04-15WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-04-11WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-04-11WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-04-11WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-04-04WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-04-01WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-03-31AMERICA STRONG AND FREE PAC INC.contributed_to$2,000pas2
2022-03-22WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-03-19WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-03-10WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2021-12-03WINREDcontributed_to$-83pas2
2021-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-10-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2021-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-5,800pas2
2021-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2021-09-21WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2021-09-08WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-09-08WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2021-09-08WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2021-08-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-08-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-08-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2021-07-29BADLANDS PACcontributed_to$5,000pas2
2021-07-10WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2021-07-07WINREDcontributed_to$-1pas2
2021-07-02WINREDcontributed_to$-1pas2
2021-06-28WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2
2021-06-28WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2
2021-06-28WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2
2021-06-28WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2
2021-06-28WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2
2021-06-16WINREDcontributed_to$250pas2
2021-06-16WINREDcontributed_to$1pas2

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”principal_candidate_ofMCGUIRE FOR ARIZONAβ€”candidate_committees

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