O'DEA, JOSEPH MATTHEW

R · senate

FEC candidate id: S2CO00241
Internal id: 2ee4326d-ff20-4865-ad56-ad6801914d93
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Colorado. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	5,862,189
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$95,470
Income	Per-capita income	$52,636
Income	In poverty	9.4%
Income	Unemployed	4.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.459
Race	White alone	70.5%
Race	Black alone	4.0%
Race	Asian alone	3.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	22.5%
Race	Two or more races	14.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	9.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	83.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	11.1%
Education	High school or higher	65.4%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	45.7%
Education	Advanced degree	17.6%
Household	Family households	61.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.42
Household	Never married (15+)	33.1%
Housing	Median home value	$539,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,761
Housing	Single-family detached	61.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.4%
Housing	Vacant units	8.3%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.5%
Health	With a disability	11.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.2%
Commute	Drove alone	65.1%
Commute	Public transit	1.6%
Commute	Worked from home	21.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$1,677	$1,954	$3,811,000	$0
2024	$-1,686	$95,548	$3,631	$3,811,000	$-1,740
2022	$10,234,965	$10,134,099	$100,865	$3,909,443	$4,426,703

Elections

2022 general senate · CO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CO-S — running
2022 general senate · CO-S — running
2022 general senate · CO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CO-S — running
2022 general senate · CO-S — running
2022 general senate · CO-S — running

Committees

JOE O'DEA FOR SENATE — principal · type S
O'DEA FOR CO SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022 — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$3,164,743	$16,051,380	61

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$7,000	Digital Production & Website Design - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$15,235	Media Buy - Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	oppose	$32,015	TV Ad Production
—	53 PEAKS	oppose	$13,000	Digital Ad Buy, Production Costs & Website Design - Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	oppose	$16,360	TV Ad Production
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	oppose	$13,955	TV Ad Production
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	oppose	$478	Research Services
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	oppose	$805	Research Services
—	GIFFORDS PAC	oppose	$50,000	Media Production Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$487,402	Media Buy - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$21,106	Media Production - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$1,701	Media Production - Estimate
—	53 PEAKS	oppose	$200,000	Digital Media Buy - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$657,530	Media Buy - Estimate
—	53 PEAKS	oppose	$2,635,939	Media Buy - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$166,300	Digital Ad Buy - Estimate
—	53 PEAKS	oppose	$13,000	Digital Ad Buy, Production Costs & Website Design - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$85,919	Media Buy - Estimate
—	53 PEAKS	oppose	$32,740	Media Production Costs - Estimate
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	oppose	$580,927	Media Buy - Estimate
2022-11-07	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	support	$12,500	TEXTING SVC
2022-11-04	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	support	$75,000	GOTV PHONE BANK
2022-11-04	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	support	$49,999	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2022-11-04	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	support	$50,000	GOTV PHONE BANK
2022-11-02	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	support	$87,495	MEDIA PLACEMENT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	GIFFORDS PAC	24A	$83,901
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	24A	$804
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-20	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-19	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-19	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-16	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-12-14	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-09	WINRED	24K	$-15
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-06	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-05	WINRED	24K	$-4
2022-12-04	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-11-30	WINRED	24K	$-12
2022-11-30	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-3
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-12
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-12
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-11-28	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-11-26	WINRED	24K	$-25

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$804	24A	fec_pas2
—	GIFFORDS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$83,901	24A	fec_pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$804		pas2
—	GIFFORDS PAC	contributed_to	$83,901		pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$13,955		fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$16,360		fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$478		fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$32,015		fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$805		fec_ies
—	GIFFORDS PAC	opposes_independently	$50,000		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$7,000		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$15,235		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$657,530		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$580,927		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$1,701		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$487,402		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$166,300		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$85,919		fec_ies
—	DEMOCRATIC COLORADO	opposes_independently	$21,106		fec_ies
—	53 PEAKS	opposes_independently	$2,635,939		fec_ies
—	53 PEAKS	opposes_independently	$32,740		fec_ies
—	53 PEAKS	opposes_independently	$200,000		fec_ies
—	53 PEAKS	opposes_independently	$13,000		fec_ies
—	53 PEAKS	opposes_independently	$13,000		fec_ies
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15		pas2
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-12-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-12-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-12-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15		pas2
2022-12-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-12-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-15		pas2
2022-12-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-12-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-12-05	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4		pas2
2022-12-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-30	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2		pas2
2022-11-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-3		pas2
2022-11-26	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-22	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-19	WINRED	contributed_to	$-30		pas2
2022-11-18	LCV VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$804		pas2
2022-11-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20		pas2
2022-11-18	LCV VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$804	24A	fec_pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000		pas2
2022-11-17	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,110		pas2
2022-11-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000		pas2
2022-11-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-11-16	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1,000		pas2
2022-11-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$0		pas2
2022-11-14	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20		pas2
2022-11-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-125		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-35		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-35		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-35		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10		pas2
2022-11-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50		pas2
2022-11-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12		pas2
2022-11-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25		pas2
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-7		pas2
2022-11-09	WINRED	contributed_to	$-500		pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,537	24N	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$4,788	24N	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$2,237		pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5,800		pas2
2022-11-08	WINRED	contributed_to	$-12		pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,237	24N	fec_pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO	contributed_to	$4,788		pas2
2022-11-08	NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$2,537		pas2
2022-11-08	AMERICA'S FUTURE	contributed_to	$-5,000		pas2
2022-11-07	AMERICAN POLICY FUND	contributed_to	$12,500		pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JOE O'DEA FOR SENATE	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	O'DEA FOR CO SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022	—		candidate_committees

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