SMITH, KEVIN H.
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2NH00231- Internal id
0ca6c3e5-4673-4fe8-8309-9b780064b2a7- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), New Hampshire. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 1,394,868 |
| People | Median age | 43 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,031 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $52,798 |
| Income | In poverty | 7.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 87.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 6.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 92.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 67.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 40.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 16.1% |
| Household | Family households | 64.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.44 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $402,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,491 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 14.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 72.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $10,166 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $0 | $4,586 | $10,166 | $5,000 | $0 |
| 2022 | $873,569 | $858,818 | $14,752 | $9,000 | $872,226 |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· NH-S β running
Committees
- KEVIN SMITH FOR SENATE β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $529,231 | $174,345 | 12 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $906 | Advertising Production |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $149,250 | Cable & Radio Advertising |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $4,810 | Digital Marketing |
| 2022-09-02 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $94,240 | DIGITAL MARKETING |
| 2022-08-31 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $160,025 | CABLE TV ADVERTISING |
| 2022-08-25 | DSCC | oppose | $67,094 | Media Buy |
| 2022-08-18 | DSCC | oppose | $33,006 | Media Buy |
| 2022-08-11 | DSCC | oppose | $33,006 | Media Buy |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | oppose | $1,833 | Media Production |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | oppose | $6,400 | Media Production |
| 2022-08-05 | DSCC | oppose | $33,006 | Media Buy |
| 2022-06-07 | STAND FOR NH PAC | support | $120,000 | Digital Advertising / Email / Text Messages |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-17 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-2 |
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-3 |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-15 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-10-04 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-09-25 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-09-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-09-17 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-09-15 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | 24E | $906 |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | 24E | $4,810 |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | 24E | $149,250 |
| 2022-09-07 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
| 2022-09-07 | WINRED | 24K | $-10 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-3 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-25 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | supports_independently | $906 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | supports_independently | $4,810 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | supports_independently | $149,250 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $149,250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $4,810 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-09 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $906 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-06 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $61,950 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-7 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-02 | STAND FOR NH PAC | supports_independently | $94,240 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-09-02 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $94,240 | pas2 | |
| 2022-09-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-31 | STAND FOR NH PAC | supports_independently | $160,025 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-31 | STAND FOR NH PAC | contributed_to | $160,025 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-25 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $67,094 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-25 | DSCC | contributed_to | $67,094 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-18 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $33,006 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-18 | DSCC | contributed_to | $33,005 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-11 | DSCC | contributed_to | $33,005 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-11 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $33,006 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | contributed_to | $6,400 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | contributed_to | $1,833 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $6,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-08 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $1,833 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-08-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-05 | DSCC | contributed_to | $33,005 | pas2 | |
| 2022-08-05 | DSCC | opposes_independently | $33,006 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-07-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-12 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-07-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KEVIN SMITH FOR SENATE | β | candidate_committees |