MANDEL, JOSHUA A.
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2OH00170- Internal id
2b18e68a-6c96-47b8-8c8c-dbd222c0e9ef- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Ohio. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 11,810,293 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $71,389 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,552 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 76.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 12.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 92.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 63.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.2% |
| Household | Family households | 61.2% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.37 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $214,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,034 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 68.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.1% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.1% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $264 | $9,258 | $-27,324 | $122,481 | $0 |
| 2024 | $20,613 | $-38,584 | $-18,651 | $122,481 | $317 |
| 2022 | $3,190,704 | $7,630,028 | $-77,847 | $0 | $678,807 |
| 2020 | $803,908 | $56,040 | $4,361,477 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $4,516,257 | $2,572,742 | $3,611,044 | $0 | $2,202,371 |
| 2016 | $1,802,048 | $150,880 | $1,657,109 | $0 | $374,685 |
| 2014 | $73,891 | $111,646 | $5,941 | $0 | $0 |
| 2012 | $18,912,557 | $18,868,809 | $43,698 | $0 | $14,794,894 |
Elections
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2012 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· OH-S β lost_general
Committees
- BERG LINGLE MANDEL REHBERG VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- BERG MANDEL REHBERG COMMITTEE 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- CITIZENS FOR JOSH MANDEL, INC. β principal Β· type S
- FOUNDERS' COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FRIENDS FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- JOSH MANDEL SENATE VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- JOSH MANDEL VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- LEGACY VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- LINGLE-MANDEL FOR A SENATE MAJORITY 2012 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- NMB DENVER 2012 COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- OHIO SENATE FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- TEAM JOSH β joint_fundraising Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $3,144,313 | $1,462,143 | 146 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | BETTER OHIO PAC | support | $987 | Direct Mail |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $4,317 | IE-Mandel-Email Marketing |
| β | GUN RIGHTS AMERICA | support | $600 | Estimated April Texting Outreach |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $12 | IE-Mandel-Donation Processing |
| β | FUND FOR A WORKING CONGRESS | oppose | $32,332 | Federal IE - Direct Mail |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $4,414 | IE-Mandel-Email Marketing |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $5,150 | IE-Mandel-Email Marketing |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $2,778 | IE- Mandel- Text Marketing |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $2,778 | IE- Mandel- Text Marketing |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $3,696 | IE- Mandel- Text Marketing |
| 2022-05-04 | USA FREEDOM FUND | support | $15,394 | Texting |
| 2022-05-02 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | support | $38,104 | Text Messaging Services |
| 2022-05-01 | USA FREEDOM FUND | support | $100,000 | Digital Advertising |
| 2022-04-28 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | oppose | $10,500 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2022-04-28 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | oppose | $12,265 | Ad Production |
| 2022-04-28 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | support | $237,500 | TV Advertising |
| 2022-04-28 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | support | $85,000 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2022-04-27 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | oppose | $1,274,064 | TV/Cable Media Placement |
| 2022-04-27 | USA FREEDOM FUND | support | $5,786 | Print Ads |
| 2022-04-27 | BETTER OHIO PAC | support | $2,250 | Direct Mail |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | support | $200,000 | TV Advertising |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | support | $75,000 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | support | $73,593 | Digital Ads and Development |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | support | $245,664 | Digital Advertising & Services |
| 2022-04-26 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $3,198 | IE- Mandel- Direct Mail Production |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| β | BETTER OHIO PAC | 24E | $986 |
| β | GUN RIGHTS AMERICA | 24E | $600 |
| β | FUND FOR A WORKING CONGRESS | 24A | $32,332 |
| 2022-12-23 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | 24E | $-2,597 |
| 2022-11-28 | TO PROTECT OUR HERITAGE PAC | 24K | $-2,000 |
| 2022-10-26 | MARYLAND ASSOCIATION FOR CONCERNED CITIZENS POL⦠| 24K | $-3,500 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-5 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-06-30 | HODLPAC | 24K | $3,531 |
| 2022-05-04 | USA FREEDOM FUND | 24E | $15,393 |
| 2022-05-02 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | 24E | $38,104 |
| 2022-05-02 | CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION | 24E | $14 |
| 2022-05-01 | USA FREEDOM FUND | 24E | $100,000 |
| 2022-04-29 | HODLPAC | 24K | $1,468 |
| 2022-04-28 | TEAPARTYEXPRESS.ORG | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2022-04-28 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | 24A | $10,500 |
| 2022-04-28 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | 24A | $12,265 |
| 2022-04-28 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | 24E | $237,500 |
| 2022-04-28 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | 24E | $85,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | BETTER OHIO PAC | contributed_to | $986 | pas2 | |
| β | GUN RIGHTS AMERICA | contributed_to | $600 | pas2 | |
| β | FUND FOR A WORKING CONGRESS | contributed_to | $32,332 | pas2 | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $12 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $4,317 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,778 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $4,414 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $3,696 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,778 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,150 | fec_ies | |
| β | FUND FOR A WORKING CONGRESS | opposes_independently | $32,332 | fec_ies | |
| β | GUN RIGHTS AMERICA | supports_independently | $600 | fec_ies | |
| β | BETTER OHIO PAC | supports_independently | $987 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-12-23 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | contributed_to | $-2,597 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-28 | TO PROTECT OUR HERITAGE PAC | contributed_to | $-2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-26 | MARYLAND ASSOCIATION FOR CONCERNED CITIZENS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-30 | HODLPAC | contributed_to | $3,531 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-04 | USA FREEDOM FUND | contributed_to | $15,393 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-04 | USA FREEDOM FUND | supports_independently | $15,394 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-05-02 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | supports_independently | $38,104 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-05-02 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | contributed_to | $38,104 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-02 | CLUB FOR GROWTH | contributed_to | $14 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-01 | USA FREEDOM FUND | contributed_to | $100,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-05-01 | USA FREEDOM FUND | supports_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-29 | HODLPAC | contributed_to | $1,468 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | opposes_independently | $10,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-28 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $85,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | supports_independently | $237,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-28 | TEAPARTYEXPRESS.ORG | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | contributed_to | $237,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | contributed_to | $10,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | contributed_to | $12,265 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-28 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $85,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-28 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | opposes_independently | $12,265 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-27 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | opposes_independently | $1,274,064 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-27 | BETTER OHIO PAC | contributed_to | $2,250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-27 | USA FREEDOM FUND | supports_independently | $5,786 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-27 | PROTECT OHIO VALUES PAC (POV PAC) | contributed_to | $1,274,063 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-27 | USA FREEDOM FUND | contributed_to | $5,785 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-27 | BETTER OHIO PAC | supports_independently | $2,250 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $3,198 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | contributed_to | $200,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | supports_independently | $245,664 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | supports_independently | $200,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $75,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC | contributed_to | $245,663 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $3,198 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $75,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | COMMITTEE FOR AMERICAN PRINCIPLES | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $73,593 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-26 | U.S. ISRAEL PAC (USI PAC) | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-26 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $73,592 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-25 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $1,111 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-22 | USA FREEDOM FUND | supports_independently | $47,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-22 | USA FREEDOM FUND | contributed_to | $47,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-21 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | contributed_to | $3,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-21 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | opposes_independently | $3,900 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-21 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $143,261 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-21 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $143,261 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-21 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $373 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-21 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $7,438 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $6,953 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-19 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | contributed_to | $73,125 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-19 | BUCKEYES FOR A STRONG OHIO | opposes_independently | $73,125 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-15 | BETTER OHIO PAC | contributed_to | $1,620 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-15 | BETTER OHIO PAC | supports_independently | $1,620 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-13 | BETTER OHIO PAC | contributed_to | $750 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-13 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $92 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-13 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $30 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-13 | BETTER OHIO PAC | supports_independently | $750 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-13 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $92 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-11 | USA FREEDOM FUND | contributed_to | $33,914 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | USA FREEDOM FUND | supports_independently | $33,914 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-11 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $1,855 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-11 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $1,316 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-06 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $43 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-06 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $43 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-05 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $249,027 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-04-05 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $365 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-05 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $249,027 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $155 | pas2 | |
| 2022-04-04 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $64 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-31 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | supports_independently | $772,930 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-03-31 | SHELBY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY FEDERAL ACCOUNT | contributed_to | $772,930 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-30 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $195 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-03-30 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $195 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-03-26 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $130 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-25 | CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC | contributed_to | $59 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-23 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $17 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-03-23 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $17 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-03-16 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $4,331 | fec_ies |
Outbound (12)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | OHIO SENATE FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JOSH MANDEL SENATE VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | NMB DENVER 2012 COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | JOSH MANDEL VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | TEAM JOSH | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | BERG MANDEL REHBERG COMMITTEE 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | LINGLE-MANDEL FOR A SENATE MAJORITY 2012 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | BERG LINGLE MANDEL REHBERG VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | FRIENDS FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | THE FOUNDERS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | LEGACY VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | CITIZENS FOR JOSH MANDEL, INC. | β | candidate_committees |