ROYSE, PAUL
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2OK00319- Internal id
7d3780a0-4ce1-4802-9ede-d5ff54405340- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Oklahoma. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 4,028,634 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $65,039 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,624 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 65.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 12.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 14.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 6.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 88.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 28.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.9% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $199,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,014 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 17.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.4% |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· OK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· OK-S β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.