DUKE, STEPHEN
I Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2VT00391- Internal id
6362489f-8f83-4f8c-8af0-7ed694f64001- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Vermont. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 647,106 |
| People | Median age | 43 |
| Income | Median household income | $81,203 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $46,500 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.453 |
| Race | White alone | 90.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 2.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 94.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 70.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 43.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 18.6% |
| Household | Family households | 58.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.28 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $316,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,234 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 67.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 19.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 16.9% |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· VT-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· VT-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· VT-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· VT-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· VT-S β lost_general
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 8.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.