MUCARSEL-POWELL, DEBBIE
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S4FL00611- Internal id
663bce45-f9e6-4e4c-a07a-87f5947bf55d- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Florida. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 22,416,077 |
| People | Median age | 43 |
| Income | Median household income | $74,568 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $42,609 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.485 |
| Race | White alone | 55.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 15.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 27.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 21.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 69.4% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 22.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 34.1% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.9% |
| Household | Family households | 64.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.51 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $359,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,669 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 54.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 14.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 70.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.2% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 15.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $36,616,416 | $36,641,694 | $-25,277 | $56,774 | $34,482,940 |
Elections
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· FL-S β running
Committees
- DEMOCRACY MOBILIZATION PROJECT PAC (DMP) β principal Β· type N
- DEMOCRACY MOBILIZATION PROJECT PAC (DMP) β independent Β· type N
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $204,209 | $8,587,075 | 68 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $190 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $1,115 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $-7,500 | MEDIA PLACEMENT/VIDEO ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $501 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | LET AMERICA VOTE PAC | support | $50,000 | Text Messaging Estimate |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $58 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | NUESTRO PAC | support | $75,000 | Telephone Outreach (Estimate) |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $1,210 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $2,994 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $14,999 | IE MEDIA PLACEMENT/VIDEO ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $493 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $638 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | JDCA PAC | support | $113 | Auto-Dialer (Estimate) |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $1,122 | DIGITAL ADS |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | support | $25,000 | Text Messaging Estimate |
| β | RED SENATE | oppose | $1,282 | DIGITAL ADS |
| 2024-10-31 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | oppose | $250,000 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2024-10-28 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | oppose | $325,400 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2024-10-28 | THEY SEE BLUE | support | $130 | internet ads |
| 2024-10-24 | RED SENATE | oppose | $7,500 | MEDIA PLACEMENT/VIDEO ADS |
| 2024-10-24 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | oppose | $1,049,415 | MEDIA PRODUCTION / MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2024-10-23 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | oppose | $2,845,790 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2024-10-23 | THEY SEE BLUE | support | $138 | internet ads |
| 2024-10-22 | THEY SEE BLUE | support | $275 | internet ads |
| 2024-10-22 | THEY SEE BLUE | support | $275 | internet ads |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | RED SENATE | 24A | $7,501 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee DEMOCRACY MOBILIZATION PROJECT PAC (DMP).
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QUINN, SUSAN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | SAN DIEGO, CA | 1 | $250 |
| NIANG, FATOU | SELF EMPLOYED Β· REALTOR | NEW CANAAN, CT | 1 | $250 |
| COE, EDWARD | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | COLUMBIA, MO | 1 | $100 |
| MCLEOD, SANDRA | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | ALLEN, TX | 1 | $100 |
| SHEILS, FLORENCE | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | MANCHESTER, CT | 2 | $60 |
| SCHANTZ, MARIE | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | SAINT CHARLES, MO | 1 | $50 |
| SOLZMAN, BAMBOO | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | CHICAGO, IL | 3 | $40 |
| HAFFNER, MARLENE | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | ROCKVILLE, MD | 4 | $28 |
| MEIER, NORMA M | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | TALLAHASSEE, FL | 1 | $25 |
| SHEA, JOHN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | PHILADELPHIA, PA | 1 | $18 |
| CALISE, CRYSTAL | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | COTUIT, MA | 1 | $15 |
| GALLE, CHUCK | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | RALEIGH, NC | 1 | $9 |
| BOEHM, RHONDA | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $6 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (69)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $190 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $2,994 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $58 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $1,122 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $-7,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $501 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $1,210 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $1,282 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $493 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $1,115 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $14,999 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $638 | fec_ies | |
| β | NUESTRO PAC | supports_independently | $75,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | LET AMERICA VOTE PAC | supports_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | JDCA PAC | supports_independently | $113 | fec_ies | |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | supports_independently | $25,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-01-15 | RED SENATE | contributed_to | $7,501 | pas2 | |
| 2024-10-31 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $250,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $325,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-28 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $130 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $7,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $1,049,415 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $138 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $2,845,790 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-22 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $275 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-22 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $275 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $313 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-20 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $265 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-20 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $265 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-19 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $180 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-18 | THEY SEE BLUE | supports_independently | $771 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $621 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-17 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-16 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $444 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $264 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | ENGAGE MIAMI | supports_independently | $23,030 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-15 | ENGAGE MIAMI | supports_independently | $8,203 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-12 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $464 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $5,700 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-11 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $520 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-10 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $265 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $255 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-08 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $381 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-07 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $468 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-06 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $320 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-05 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $477 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-04 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $593 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-03 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $585 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $604 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-01 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $617 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-01 | LATINO VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $14,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-01 | LATINO VICTORY FUND | supports_independently | $3,750 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $377 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $432 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $468 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $376 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $284 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $283 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $266 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $401 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-30 | RED SENATE | opposes_independently | $354 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-11 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $3,030,907 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-05 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $13,070 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-05 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $8,585 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-03 | PROJECT RESCUE AMERICA | opposes_independently | $1,008,485 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-03-06 | BLUEWAVEAMERICA | supports_independently | $500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-14 | BLUEWAVEAMERICA | supports_independently | $500 | fec_ies | |
| 2023-10-10 | BLUEWAVEAMERICA | supports_independently | $1,500 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | DEMOCRACY MOBILIZATION PROJECT PAC (DMP) | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | DEMOCRACY MOBILIZATION PROJECT PAC (DMP) | β | candidate_committees |