SHOFFNER, HALLIE

D · senate

FEC candidate id: S6AR00199
Internal id: 842848cd-b5cb-48a1-86fb-e7a89fb018db
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arkansas. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	3,049,391
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$60,773
Income	Per-capita income	$34,225
Income	In poverty	16.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.479
Race	White alone	69.2%
Race	Black alone	14.7%
Race	Asian alone	1.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	9.0%
Race	Two or more races	10.3%
Origin	Foreign-born	5.4%
Language	Speaks English only at home	91.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	6.1%
Education	High school or higher	59.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	25.7%
Education	Advanced degree	9.5%
Household	Family households	64.6%
Household	Avg household size	2.46
Household	Never married (15+)	29.8%
Housing	Median home value	$188,000
Housing	Median gross rent	$947
Housing	Single-family detached	70.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.7%
Housing	Vacant units	13.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.4%
Health	With a disability	18.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	86.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	10.5%
Commute	Drove alone	78.9%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	8.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,589,764	$1,011,034	$578,730	$0	$1,584,211

Elections

2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running
2026 general senate · AR-S — running

Committees

HALLIE SHOFFNER FOR ARKANSAS — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$0	$1,877,376	13

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-05-12	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$200,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-05-08	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	oppose	$34,000	TEXT MESSAGES
2026-04-27	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$254,141	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-04-27	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$75,673	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2026-04-17	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	oppose	$400	DIGITAL MEDIA PRODUCTION / DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-04-06	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	oppose	$34,000	TEXT MESSAGES
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$488,754	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$20,000	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2026-03-16	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$295,624	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-03-04	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	oppose	$36,000	TEXT MESSAGES
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$298,284	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	oppose	$65,000	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2026-01-16	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	oppose	$75,500	TEXT MESSAGES / DIGITAL MEDIA PRODUCTION / DIGITAL MEDIA PL…

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	24A	$488,754
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	24A	$20,000
2026-03-16	AMERICA ONE	24A	$295,624
2026-03-04	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	24A	$36,000
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	24A	$298,284
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	24A	$65,000
2026-01-16	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	24A	$75,500
2025-09-04	SMART TD PAC	24K	$1,000

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee HALLIE SHOFFNER FOR ARKANSAS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
ORNDORFF, MIKE	CONSTRUCTION · SELF	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$1,200
PELLI, DENIS	NYU · PROFESSOR	NEW YORK, NY	2	$1,150
MAGIE, STEVE	ARKANSAS · STATE REPRESENTATIVE	CONWAY, AR	1	$1,037
KELSO, DREW	NOT EMPLOYED · OTHER(NOT EMPLOYED)	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$1,000
SKOCH, BERNARD KURT	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	ELKINS, AR	1	$1,000
ROBERTS, BOBBY	NONE · RETIRED	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$1,000
HANKINS, STUART	SELF · ATTORNEY / LEGAL	SHERWOOD, AR	1	$1,000
LANCASTER, MILDRED GORE	NONE · RETIRED	HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE, AR	1	$1,000
BABBIE, EARL	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE, AR	1	$1,000
MATHIS, JOHN	CHRIST LUTHERAN CHURCH · REVEREND	NORTH LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$1,000
HRUBY, SIOBAHN	SELF · PHYSICIAN	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$519
VANDERSTEK, ELIZABETH	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	MOUNTAIN HOME, AR	2	$515
JACKSON, BECCA	WYNNE FAMILY EYE CARE · OPTOMETRIST	WYNNE, AR	1	$500
SINGLETON, STEVE	RETIRED · RET. EDUCATOR	CONWAY, AR	1	$500
BIEDERMANN, JOANN	UAMS · RESEARCH ASSISTANT	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$500
WALTER, ALLEN	SELF · FARMER	GROTON, SD	1	$500
FLANAGAN, ALAN	CHOCTAW NATION · PHYSICIAN	FORT SMITH, AR	1	$500
MEYER, DEBBIE	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	WYNNE, AR	1	$500
DARE, JUDY	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	HOT SPRINGS, AR	1	$500
MCMILLIN, HELEN	SELF · COMPOSER	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$500
TUCKER, GARY	NONE · RETIRED	WEST FORK, AR	1	$500
BRADT, STEVEN	OPTIMIZE CONSULTING · CONSULTANT	ROGERS, AR	1	$500
CATLETT, S GRAHAM	CATLETT LAW FIRM · ATTORNEY	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$500
KAFFKA, CAROL	NONE · RETIRED	LITTLE ROCK, AR	1	$310
JOHNSON, RITA	RETIRED · RETIRED	LITTLE ROCK, AR	3	$300

Connected on the graph

Inbound (21)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-05-12	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$200,000	fec_ies
2026-05-08	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	opposes_independently	$34,000	fec_ies
2026-04-27	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$254,141	fec_ies
2026-04-27	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$75,673	fec_ies
2026-04-17	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	opposes_independently	$400	fec_ies
2026-04-06	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	opposes_independently	$34,000	fec_ies
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$488,754	fec_ies
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	contributed_to	$20,000	pas2
2026-03-30	AMERICA ONE	contributed_to	$488,754	pas2
2026-03-16	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$295,624	fec_ies
2026-03-16	AMERICA ONE	contributed_to	$295,624	pas2
2026-03-04	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	contributed_to	$36,000	pas2
2026-03-04	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	opposes_independently	$36,000	fec_ies
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$65,000	fec_ies
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	opposes_independently	$298,284	fec_ies
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	contributed_to	$65,000	pas2
2026-03-02	AMERICA ONE	contributed_to	$298,284	pas2
2026-01-16	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	contributed_to	$75,500	pas2
2026-01-16	ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE	opposes_independently	$75,500	fec_ies
2025-09-04	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	HALLIE SHOFFNER FOR ARKANSAS	—		candidate_committees

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