MCCAIN, JOHN S

R · senate · bioguide M000303

FEC candidate id: S6AZ00019
Internal id: 35015f2f-21b5-4d77-b513-057f4eb68ef8
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	7,378,838
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$79,964
Income	Per-capita income	$42,503
Income	In poverty	12.5%
Income	Unemployed	5.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.464
Race	White alone	59.0%
Race	Black alone	4.6%
Race	Asian alone	3.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	31.4%
Race	Two or more races	19.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	74.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	19.3%
Education	High school or higher	56.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	33.3%
Education	Advanced degree	13.0%
Household	Family households	64.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.53
Household	Never married (15+)	34.1%
Housing	Median home value	$394,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,543
Housing	Single-family detached	64.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.3%
Housing	Vacant units	10.6%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.9%
Health	With a disability	13.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.0%
Commute	Drove alone	66.8%
Commute	Public transit	1.1%
Commute	Worked from home	18.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2016	$11,756,079	$13,353,390	$421,864	$0	$8,126,194
2014	$2,852,291	$1,005,828	$2,019,177	$0	$1,179,300
2012	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
2010	$18,426,347	$20,490,726	$0	$0	$5,905,290
2008	$2,524,249	$37,399	$2,506,882	$0	$50
2006	$285,373	$1,548,793	$20,033	$0	$126,025
2004	$3,419,717	$2,140,807	$1,283,451	$0	$2,743,238
2002	$56,118	$53,777	$4,544	$0	$38,104
2000	$43,812	$2,058,754	$2,384	$0	$7,175
1998	$4,450,544	$2,461,900	$2,017,327	$0	$3,136,943
1996	$161,029	$133,909	$28,684	$0	$123,120
1994	$135,718	$140,082	$1,562	$0	$19,621
1992	$3,344,311	$3,481,915	$5,927	$59,891	$2,011,847
1990	$210,312	$139,604	$143,531	$0	$136,386
1988	$217,893	$294,188	$72,822	$0	$11,339
1986	$2,557,886	$2,408,766	$0	$0	$0

Elections

1992 general senate · AZ-S — won
1992 general senate · AZ-S — won
1992 general senate · AZ-S — won
1992 general senate · AZ-S — won
1998 general senate · AZ-S — won
1998 general senate · AZ-S — won
1998 general senate · AZ-S — won
2004 general senate · AZ-S — won
2004 general senate · AZ-S — won
2004 general senate · AZ-S — won
2010 general senate · AZ-S — won
2010 general senate · AZ-S — won
2010 general senate · AZ-S — won
2010 general senate · AZ-S — won
2010 general senate · AZ-S — won
2016 general senate · AZ-S — won
2016 general senate · AZ-S — won
2016 general senate · AZ-S — won
2016 general senate · AZ-S — won
2016 general senate · AZ-S — won
2022 general senate · AZ-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · AZ-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · AZ-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · AZ-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · AZ-S — lost_general

Committees

2010 SENATORS' CLASSIC COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type S
2015 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type S
BLUNT BURR MCCAIN JOINT VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
CALIFORNIA SUNSHINE FUND — independent · type U
KEEP THE SENATE MAJORITY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type S
MCCAIN FOR SENATE '98 — principal · type S
MCCAIN LEADERSHIP FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
MCCAIN VICTORY 2010 — joint_fundraising · type N
MCCAIN VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
MCCAIN-AYOTTE JOINT VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
PATRIOT FIRST PAC — leadership · type Q
PATRIOT FIRST PAC — principal · type Q
REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL INNER CIRCLE 1990 — joint_fundraising · type Y
SEDONA PAC — principal · type N

Recent votes

No votes on file.

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (14)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	CALIFORNIA SUNSHINE FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	KEEP THE SENATE MAJORITY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2015 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	BLUNT BURR MCCAIN JOINT VICTORY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	MCCAIN VICTORY 2010	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2010 SENATORS' CLASSIC COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	MCCAIN-AYOTTE JOINT VICTORY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL INNER CIRCLE 1990	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	MCCAIN VICTORY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	MCCAIN PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	leadership_committee_of	PATRIOT FIRST PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MCCAIN FOR SENATE '98	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	PATRIOT FIRST PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SEDONA PAC	—	candidate_committees

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