CARNAHAN, ROBIN
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6MO00297- Internal id
e1ed2156-ff13-40d5-8858-0fcb45900474- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Missouri. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 6,191,814 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $70,702 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $39,695 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.0% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.465 |
| Race | White alone | 77.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 11.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 5.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.1% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.5% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.6% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 32.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.6% |
| Household | Family households | 62.1% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.40 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $230,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,033 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.5% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 11.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $0 | $52,957 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2012 | $73,544 | $36,120 | $71,242 | $174,076 | $232 |
| 2010 | $10,327,090 | $10,311,557 | $15,533 | $125,120 | $8,632,907 |
Elections
- 2006 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2006 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2006 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
- 2010 general senate Β· MO-S β lost_general
Committees
- 2010 SENATE VICTORY β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- 2010 WOMEN'S SENATE FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- 4 FOR SENATE VICTORY β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- 4 SENATE VICTORY β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- BENNET CARNAHAN VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER FUTURE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- DRAFT ROBIN CARNAHAN US SENATE 06 β independent Β· type U
- GIFTED WOMEN 2009 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- MISSOURI ARKANSAS VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- MISSOURI NEW HAMPSHIRE VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- MISSOURI SENATE 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- MISSOURI VICTORY 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- MISSOURI-NEW YORK VICTORY FUND β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- ROBIN CARNAHAN FOR SENATE β principal Β· type S
- SECURE OUR SENATE 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- SENATE 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- SENATE VICTORY 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- WIN2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- WOMEN SENATE 2010 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (19)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | DRAFT ROBIN CARNAHAN US SENATE 06 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MISSOURI-NEW YORK VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MISSOURI NEW HAMPSHIRE VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2010 WOMEN'S SENATE FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | SENATE 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MISSOURI SENATE 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | WIN2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | SECURE OUR SENATE 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | GIFTED WOMEN 2009 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | BENNET CARNAHAN VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2010 SENATE VICTORY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MISSOURI VICTORY 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 4 FOR SENATE VICTORY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | WOMEN SENATE 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 4 SENATE VICTORY | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | MISSOURI ARKANSAS VICTORY FUND | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | SENATE VICTORY 2010 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | COMMITTEE FOR A BETTER FUTURE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | ROBIN CARNAHAN FOR SENATE | β | candidate_committees |