BODNAR, SETH

I · senate

FEC candidate id: S6MT00287
Internal id: 1e61b585-222b-49cc-b07a-f4730bdbb034
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Montana. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	1,116,875
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$72,509
Income	Per-capita income	$41,711
Income	In poverty	11.5%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.465
Race	White alone	85.0%
Race	Black alone	0.5%
Race	Asian alone	0.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.6%
Race	Two or more races	6.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	95.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.4%
Education	High school or higher	62.7%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.2%
Education	Advanced degree	12.0%
Household	Family households	60.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.37
Household	Never married (15+)	30.2%
Housing	Median home value	$375,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,081
Housing	Single-family detached	68.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.8%
Housing	Vacant units	13.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.0%
Health	With a disability	14.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.4%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.7%
Commute	Drove alone	71.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.6%
Commute	Worked from home	12.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,358,575	$213,587	$1,144,988	$0	$1,332,525

Elections

2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running
2026 general senate · MT-S — running

Committees

SETH BODNAR FOR MONTANA — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 8.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
open seat	-5.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$0	$106,051	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$25,597	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$10,000	PRODUCTION COST: TV AND DIGITAL AD
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$60,454	PLACED MEDIA: TV
2026-03-06	LEADERSHIP IN ACTION	oppose	$10,000	Digital Ad to Oppose Seth Bodnar

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-30	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	24K	$5,000
2026-03-24	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	24K	$5,000
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	24A	$25,597
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	24A	$10,000
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	24A	$60,454
2026-03-06	WAY BACK PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-03-06	WAY BACK PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-03-06	LEADERSHIP IN ACTION	24A	$10,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (12)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-03-30	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-24	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	contributed_to	$60,454	pas2
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	contributed_to	$25,597	pas2
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$25,597	fec_ies
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$60,454	fec_ies
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2026-03-17	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2026-03-06	WAY BACK PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-06	LEADERSHIP IN ACTION	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2026-03-06	WAY BACK PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-06	LEADERSHIP IN ACTION	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SETH BODNAR FOR MONTANA	—		candidate_committees

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