KEAN, THOMAS H JR

R · senate

FEC candidate id: S6NJ00271
Internal id: 2b234c19-7665-4ae6-af3f-3fd1dd64c0cf
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), New Jersey. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	9,343,809
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$103,556
Income	Per-capita income	$54,253
Income	In poverty	9.7%
Income	Unemployed	6.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.478
Race	White alone	54.0%
Race	Black alone	12.8%
Race	Asian alone	10.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	22.5%
Race	Two or more races	12.4%
Origin	Foreign-born	23.9%
Language	Speaks English only at home	66.9%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	17.2%
Education	High school or higher	68.9%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	43.6%
Education	Advanced degree	17.6%
Household	Family households	67.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.62
Household	Never married (15+)	34.9%
Housing	Median home value	$454,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,720
Housing	Single-family detached	52.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.0%
Housing	Vacant units	7.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.7%
Health	With a disability	10.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.4%
Commute	Drove alone	62.2%
Commute	Public transit	8.1%
Commute	Worked from home	16.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$24,066	$385	$88,000	$0
2024	$15,100	$33	$24,451	$112,000	$2,100
2022	$7,500	$166	$9,384	$112,000	$0
2020	$1,500	$541	$2,050	$112,000	$1,500
2018	$0	$27	$1,090	$112,000	$0
2016	$1,000	$2,941	$1,118	$112,000	$0
2014	$8,903	$8,854	$3,060	$112,000	$8,400
2012	$1,006	$1,460	$3,011	$120,000	$0
2010	$18,511	$16,057	$3,465	$120,000	$10,699
2008	$56,105	$169,975	$1,011	$130,000	$500
2006	$7,879,053	$7,762,373	$116,879	$200,000	$5,571,222

Elections

2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — lost_general
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — lost_general
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — lost_general
2006 general senate · NJ-S — lost_general
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running
2006 general senate · NJ-S — lost_general
2006 general senate · NJ-S — running

Committees

2006 FINISH LINE CANDIDATE FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
2006 OPEN SEAT AND CHALLENGER FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
2006 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type S
ELECTION FUND OF TOM KEAN — principal · type S
GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
GOP MAJORITY FUND 2006 — joint_fundraising · type N
KEAN MAJORITY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type Y
KEAN-NJ VICTORY 06 — joint_fundraising · type Q

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-09-16	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION C…	24K	$2,500
2025-07-17	ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTE…	24K	$2,000
2022-12-19	AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITI…	24K	$5,000
2022-12-02	REPUBLICAN GOVERNANCE GROUP/TUESDAY GROUP PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-10-28	VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-10-27	TEXAS RED	24K	$1,500
2022-10-20	AMERICAN STAFFING ASSOCIATION STAFFING PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-09-29	TEXAS RED	24K	$1,500
2022-06-23	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POL…	24K	$-5,000
2022-06-06	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POL…	24K	$5,000
2022-03-27	TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC	24K	$5,000
2021-09-28	CONNELL FOLEY PAC A NEW JERSEY NON-PROFIT CORPO…	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (23)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2025-09-16	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (GENERAL DYNAMICS EMPLOYEE PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2025-09-16	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (GENERAL DYNAMICS EMPLOYEE PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2025-07-17	ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ELEVANCE HEALTH PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2025-07-17	ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ELEVANCE HEALTH PAC)	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-12-19	AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-12-19	AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-12-02	REPUBLICAN GOVERNANCE GROUP/TUESDAY GROUP PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-12-02	REPUBLICAN GOVERNANCE GROUP/TUESDAY GROUP PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-10-28	VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-10-28	VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-27	TEXAS RED	contributed_to	$1,500		pas2
2022-10-27	TEXAS RED	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-20	AMERICAN STAFFING ASSOCIATION STAFFING PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-20	AMERICAN STAFFING ASSOCIATION STAFFING PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-09-29	TEXAS RED	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-29	TEXAS RED	contributed_to	$1,500		pas2
2022-06-23	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-5,000		pas2
2022-06-06	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-06-06	NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-27	TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-03-27	TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-09-28	CONNELL FOLEY PAC A NEW JERSEY NON-PROFIT CORPORATION	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-09-28	CONNELL FOLEY PAC A NEW JERSEY NON-PROFIT CORPORATION	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2

Outbound (8)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	KEAN MAJORITY COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	GOP MAJORITY FUND 2006	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	KEAN-NJ VICTORY 06	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2006 FINISH LINE CANDIDATE FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2006 OPEN SEAT AND CHALLENGER FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2006 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	COMMITTEE FOR GOOD GOVERNMENT	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	ELECTION FUND OF TOM KEAN	—	candidate_committees

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