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LYNCH, MARK

R · senate

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FEC candidate id
S6SC04213
Internal id
c49b91a8-7dec-4611-9b92-4a9e909b17cc
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), South Carolina. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation5,296,225
PeopleMedian age40
IncomeMedian household income$69,324
IncomePer-capita income$39,236
IncomeIn poverty14.1%
IncomeUnemployed4.8%
IncomeGini inequality index0.475
RaceWhite alone63.3%
RaceBlack alone24.8%
RaceAsian alone1.8%
RaceHispanic or Latino7.4%
RaceTwo or more races6.8%
OriginForeign-born5.8%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home91.6%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home5.3%
EducationHigh school or higher60.3%
EducationBachelor's or higher32.1%
EducationAdvanced degree12.3%
HouseholdFamily households65.0%
HouseholdAvg household size2.44
HouseholdNever married (15+)32.4%
HousingMedian home value$259,000
HousingMedian gross rent$1,180
HousingSingle-family detached64.5%
HousingBuilt before 19402.6%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)2.0%
HousingVacant units13.3%
ServiceVeterans (18+)8.3%
HealthWith a disability14.6%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband88.8%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet8.3%
CommuteDrove alone76.3%
CommutePublic transit0.4%
CommuteWorked from home11.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$5,726,191$2,398,855$3,327,336$5,050,000$487,188

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

FeatureΔ P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2026$0$828,44211

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
2026-05-12SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACoppose$2,178Digital Advertising
2026-05-01SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACoppose$2,000Digital Advertising
2026-04-28SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACoppose$5,000Digital Advertising
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026oppose$129,719Direct Mail
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026oppose$247,599Direct Mail
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026oppose$16,168Text Messaging
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026oppose$31,028Text Messaging
2026-04-21SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACoppose$2,000Digital Advertising
2026-04-15PROJECT 2026oppose$312,750Digital Advertising
2026-04-09PROJECT 2026oppose$50,000Digital Advertising
2026-04-08PROJECT 2026oppose$30,000Digital Advertising

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee LYNCH FOR SENATE.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

DonorEmployer / occupationCity, STGiftsTotal
COVINGTON, GARY MR.RETIRED · RETIREDMIDLAND, TX1$3,500
STAI, DIAN GRAVES MS.RETIRED · RETIREDFREDERICKSBURG, TX1$1,000
EVANS, JAMES A MR.RETIRED · RETIREDGREENVILLE, SC1$500
MURDOCK, JOANRETIRED · RETIREDGREER, SC1$500
HORSTICK, DAVID PRETIRED · RETIREDPEWAUKEE, WI1$300
WOOD, REBECCA MRETIRED · RETIREDTALLADEGA, AL1$285
MORROW, WILLIAMEMPIRICAL CONSULTING SOLUTIONS · CONSULTANTDOWNINGTOWN, PA1$275
BAKER, CAROL W MRS.RETIRED · RETIREDCHARLESTON, SC1$250
BRANYON, FRANCIS M MR. IIIBRANYON ACCOUNTING · CPAHONEA PATH, SC1$250
ELLIOTT, JANE MS.RETIRED · RETIREDATLANTIC MINE, MI1$250
HANKINS, ERICHANKINS GRAIN · MGRCLINTON, MO1$250
STAHL, THOMASSELF-EMPLOYED · FARMERWATERVILLE, WA1$250
STEPHENS, VIOLET MRS.RETIRED · RETIREDGREENVILLE, SC1$250
STUTZMAN, PAUL A MR.RETIRED · RETIREDMILLERSBURG, OH1$250
WALL, IRENE B MRS.RETIRED · RETIREDPRUDENVILLE, MI1$250
HOLTEN, JAMES J MR.RETIRED · RETIREDSMITHTON, IL1$101
SCHATTYN, JOHN MARTYN MR.RETIRED · RETIREDKERRVILLE, TX1$100
GANSER, CAROLYN MRETIRED · RETIREDSIMPSONVILLE, SC1$100
DENNIS, DONALD DEAN MR.RETIRED · RETIREDSAN ANGELO, TX1$75
MONTERO, HELEN S MRS.RETIRED · RETIREDBELMONT, MA1$50
DOUGLASS, DONALD J MR.RETIRED · RETIREDCAPE CANAVERAL, FL1$50
NEFF, DALLAS S MR.RETIRED · RETIREDLA HARPE, IL1$50
SMITH, KARMA MRETIRED · RETIREDHONEA PATH, SC1$50
JOHNSON, SAMUEL E MR. IIIRETIRED · N/AMOORE, SC1$50
MONTS-RAYFIELD, NANCY C MRS.RETIRED · RETIREDROCK HILL, SC1$50

Connected on the graph

Inbound (11)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
2026-05-12SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACopposes_independently$2,178fec_ies
2026-05-01SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACopposes_independently$2,000fec_ies
2026-04-28SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACopposes_independently$5,000fec_ies
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$129,719fec_ies
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$247,599fec_ies
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$16,168fec_ies
2026-04-21PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$31,028fec_ies
2026-04-21SECURITY IS STRENGTH PACopposes_independently$2,000fec_ies
2026-04-15PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$312,750fec_ies
2026-04-09PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$50,000fec_ies
2026-04-08PROJECT 2026opposes_independently$30,000fec_ies

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
—principal_candidate_ofLYNCH FOR SENATE—candidate_committees

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