PAXTON, WARREN KENNETH JR.
R · senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6TX00388- Internal id
e2fd8c7a-1d8c-464a-8885-190f9996eec1- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Texas. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 30,188,424 |
| People | Median age | 36 |
| Income | Median household income | $78,476 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,752 |
| Income | In poverty | 13.8% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.478 |
| Race | White alone | 48.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 12.2% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 39.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 23.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 17.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 64.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 28.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 58.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.3% |
| Household | Family households | 67.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.69 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $283,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,403 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 64.4% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.3% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $7,600,512 | $5,257,561 | $2,342,950 | $0 | $7,573,427 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate · TX-S · 2026-11-03 — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S · 2026-11-03 — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
- 2026 general senate · TX-S — running
Committees
- KEN PAXTON FOR SENATE — principal · type S
- TEXAS FIRST LEADERSHIP PAC — principal · type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,755,735 | $24,291,901 | 54 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | TEXANS DEMANDING ACCOUNTABILITY | oppose | $617,827 | PRINTING / POSTAGE / PRODUCTION |
| 2026-05-12 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $8,500 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-05-08 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $2,000 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $3,005,161 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $300,000 | DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $157,119 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2026-04-30 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $3,000 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-29 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $1,509,675 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-24 | EARLY VOTE ACTION PAC | support | $5,014 | Text messages |
| 2026-04-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $810,042 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $450,000 | DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-24 | EARLY VOTE ACTION PAC | support | $0 | Text messages - never dissemminated |
| 2026-04-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $541,112 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-13 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $1,141,113 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $49,658 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $8,500 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-09 | FELLOWSHIP PAC | support | $1,750,000 | Advertising |
| 2026-04-08 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $194,738 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $400,000 | DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-04-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $752,085 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-03-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $180,048 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-03-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $3,500 | DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-03-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $125,000 | DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-03-19 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $334,545 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2026-02-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | oppose | $309,473 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee KEN PAXTON FOR SENATE.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARD, R. MIKE | DOUBLE DIAMOND INC. · LAND DEVELOPER | DALLAS, TX | 2 | $17,500 |
| AUNG, KATIE | — | DALLAS, TX | 2 | $17,500 |
| NEWKUMET, CAITLIN | — | MIDLAND, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| CAPOBIANCO, ROSANGELA | HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER | HOUSTON, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| SHUAIB, JESSICA | SELF-EMPLOYED · SURGEON | DALLAS, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| SHUAIB, TAWHID A. MD | DHR · PHYSICIAN | MCALLEN, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| NEWKUMET, LINDA | HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER | MIDLAND, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| SHUAIB, STEFAN | SELF-EMPLOYED · SURGEON | DALLAS, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| CAPOBIANCO, DAVID | FIVE POINT ENERGY · CEO/MANAGING PARTNER | HOUSTON, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| SHUAIB, MIHAELA | RETIRED · RETIRED | MCALLEN, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| AUNG, THEIN | — | DALLAS, TX | 2 | $10,500 |
| HERBST, KAREN L. | PROVIDENCE MINERALS LLC · OIL AND GAS LANDMAN | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $7,000 |
| PARSONS, STUART | — | CLIFTON, TX | 1 | $7,000 |
| HARRISON, LAURIE | ROSEWOOD CORPORATION · EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $7,000 |
| SCHARBAUER, CHRIS | SCHARBAUER 5 MANGEMENT LLC · CATTLE RANCHER | AMARILLO, TX | 2 | $7,000 |
| ROYALL, MICHAEL SEAN | KING SPALDING LLP · PARTNER | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $3,643 |
| NEWKUMET, TRAVIS | REGIONS PERMIAN LLC · CEO | MIDLAND, TX | 1 | $3,500 |
| NEWKUMET, WAYNE MR. | RETIRED · RETIRED | MIDLAND, TX | 1 | $3,500 |
| WEYAND, RODNEY D. | — | MCALLEN, TX | 1 | $2,500 |
| CASTILLA, DAVID | GENCAP PARTNERS · REAL ESTATE | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $2,500 |
| LODGE, JOHN W. MR. III | LODGE LUMBER · CHAIRMAN AND PRESIDENT | HOUSTON, TX | 2 | $2,000 |
| LYNN, KAY | REFINITIV US LLC · ATTORNEY | DALLAS, TX | 1 | $1,500 |
| LEE, PAULINE | RETIRED · RETIRED | LAS VEGAS, NV | 1 | $1,250 |
| JOINER, VIRGINIA MS. | RETIRED · RETIRED | MEADOWLAKES, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| BORKENHAGEN, HALERIE | RETIRED · RETIRED | PHOENIX, AZ | 1 | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | LONE STAR VOICES | contributed_to | $722 | pas2 | |
| — | LONE STAR VOICES | contributed_to | $521 | pas2 | |
| 2026-05-13 | TEXANS DEMANDING ACCOUNTABILITY | opposes_independently | $617,827 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-12 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-08 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $2,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $157,119 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $300,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $3,005,161 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-30 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $3,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-29 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,509,675 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $450,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-24 | EARLY VOTE ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $0 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-24 | EARLY VOTE ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $5,014 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $810,042 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $541,112 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-13 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,141,113 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $49,658 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-09 | FELLOWSHIP PAC | supports_independently | $1,750,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-08 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $194,738 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $400,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $752,085 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $180,048 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $180,048 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $3,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $125,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $125,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-19 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $334,545 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-19 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $334,545 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $309,473 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $309,473 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-24 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $309,473 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-23 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $8,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $290,900 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-23 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $290,900 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $300,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $300,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $408 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $42 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-18 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,004,039 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-18 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,004,038 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-16 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $169 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-12 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $360 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-12 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-09 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $49 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $738,293 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-09 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-09 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $360 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-09 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $738,292 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-02 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,146,712 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-02 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,146,712 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,080,183 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,080,183 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-23 | LAXALT FOR SENATE | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-23 | LAXALT FOR SENATE | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-21 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $500,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-21 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $500,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,080,183 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $8,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-20 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,080,183 | pas2 | |
| 2025-12-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $363,475 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-12-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $350,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-12-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $350,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-12-01 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $363,474 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-13 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $349,082 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-11-13 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $349,081 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-10 | HOUSTON PILOTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $214,887 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $214,888 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $279,838 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $279,838 | pas2 | |
| 2025-11-07 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $8,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $350,261 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $100,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-26 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $350,261 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-24 | TROUTMAN PEPPER LOCKE LLP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE, INC. | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-22 | U.S. ANESTHESIA PARTNERS, INC. PAC D/B/A/ USAP PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-22 | U.S. ANESTHESIA PARTNERS, INC. PAC D/B/A/ USAP PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-22 | U.S. ANESTHESIA PARTNERS, INC. PAC D/B/A/ USAP PAC | contributed_to | $-15,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-19 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $8,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-19 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $8,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-17 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $883,378 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-17 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $883,378 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-11 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $408,151 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-11 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $997,290 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-11 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $997,289 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-11 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $408,151 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-09-02 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,048,753 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-02 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,048,753 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-08-27 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $408,151 | pas2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $8,500 | pas2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | contributed_to | $1,143,253 | pas2 | |
| 2025-08-27 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $1,143,253 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-08-27 | TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY | opposes_independently | $408,151 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | TEXAS FIRST LEADERSHIP PAC | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | KEN PAXTON FOR SENATE | — | candidate_committees |