MCCARTHY, LEO T
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S8CA00044- Internal id
cb84c136-431d-4690-974f-6bcdebc2cf1c- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), California. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 39,287,377 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,122 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $49,513 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.489 |
| Race | White alone | 39.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 5.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 15.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 40.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 27.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 55.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 28.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 57.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 37.1% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.4% |
| Household | Family households | 67.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.84 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 38.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $734,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,036 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 57.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 8.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.3% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 93.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 4.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 65.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.9% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 17.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $0 | $750 | $3,788 | $14,089 | $0 |
| 1998 | $11,975 | $27,103 | $4,538 | $42,340 | $0 |
| 1996 | $17,848 | $3,463 | $19,668 | $55,700 | $0 |
| 1994 | $33,705 | $40,177 | $5,286 | $55,700 | $3,235 |
| 1992 | $3,048,700 | $3,039,891 | $11,759 | $68,257 | $2,706,702 |
| 1990 | $845,001 | $925,583 | $2,952 | $56,852 | $587,446 |
| 1988 | $6,989,914 | $6,987,862 | $1,950 | $448,803 | $5,483,703 |
Elections
- 1988 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1988 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1988 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1988 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
- 1992 general senate Β· CA-S β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF MCCARTHY FOR SENATE β principal Β· type S
- MCCARTHY COMMITTEE; THE β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF MCCARTHY FOR SENATE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | MCCARTHY COMMITTEE; THE | β | candidate_committees |