BAILEY, HAROLD L.
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canonical · bailey/harold · 1 alias · 1 outbound · 0 inbound
FEC candidate — BAILEY, HAROLD L.
D · house · challenger · FEC H0IL01152
Elections (3)
Committees (1)
- FRIENDS OF HAROLD BAILEY — principal · type H
Election prediction
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures for/against
Coordinated party expenditures
Top individual donors — FRIENDS OF HAROLD BAILEY
Committee assignments
Congressional staff (offices this person hires)
STOCK Act trades
Timeline
Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.
- 2026-05-17 · is the candidate's principal committee FRIENDS OF HAROLD BAILEY · candidate_committees
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph — 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | → | FRIENDS OF HAROLD BAILEY | — | candidate_committees |
Aliases (1)
| source | id | name at source | jurisdiction | confidence | linked by | linked at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fec | H0IL01152 | BAILEY, HAROLD L. | US | bronze | backfill_0028 |