BAGLEY, KEITH MR.
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canonical · bagley/keith · 1 alias · 1 outbound · 0 inbound
FEC candidate — BAGLEY, KEITH MR.
G · president · challenger · FEC P40020489
Elections (15)
- 2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — running
- 2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — lost_general
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
- 2024 general president — running
Committees (1)
- THE TOKYO LOUNGE — principal · type P
Election prediction
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures for/against
Coordinated party expenditures
Top individual donors — THE TOKYO LOUNGE
Committee assignments
Congressional staff (offices this person hires)
STOCK Act trades
Timeline
Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.
- 2026-05-17 · is the candidate's principal committee THE TOKYO LOUNGE · candidate_committees
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph — 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | → | THE TOKYO LOUNGE | — | candidate_committees |
Aliases (1)
| source | id | name at source | jurisdiction | confidence | linked by | linked at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fec | P40020489 | BAGLEY, KEITH MR. | US | bronze | backfill_0028 |