STEEL, MICHELLE

R · house · bioguide S001135

FEC candidate id: H0CA48198
Internal id: 0f4c6975-1e48-4b42-9df7-aae372e69f87
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-45. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	748,896
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$107,226
Income	Per-capita income	$44,637
Income	In poverty	9.9%
Income	Unemployed	5.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.444
Race	White alone	30.3%
Race	Black alone	2.1%
Race	Asian alone	38.3%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	30.8%
Race	Two or more races	15.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	37.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	46.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	20.3%
Education	High school or higher	58.2%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	38.7%
Education	Advanced degree	13.1%
Household	Family households	76.1%
Household	Avg household size	3.11
Household	Never married (15+)	35.1%
Housing	Median home value	$897,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,250
Housing	Single-family detached	58.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	9.6%
Housing	Vacant units	3.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.3%
Health	With a disability	10.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.0%
Commute	Drove alone	71.1%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	14.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$1,252,672	$2,156,133	$0	$0	$93,068
2024	$10,730,107	$10,283,183	$903,461	$2,061,529	$4,716,765
2022	$7,411,601	$7,112,138	$456,537	$495,002	$4,114,632
2020	$6,428,813	$6,271,739	$157,074	$250,000	$3,456,633

Elections

2020 general house · CA-45 — running
2020 general house · CA-48 — won
2022 general house · CA-45 — won
2024 general house · CA-45 — lost_general
2026 general house · CA-45 — running

Committees

MICHELLE STEEL FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
STEEL FOR CA-48 — principal · type H

Recent votes

2024-12-20 · Cong. 118 · house roll 517
YEA on HR 10545 — American Relief Act, 2025
2024-12-19 · Cong. 118 · house roll 516
YEA on HR 10515 — American Relief Act, 2025
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 515
YEA on S 759 — Beagle Brigade Act of 2023
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 514
YEA on HR 8663 — DETECT Fentanyl and Xylazine Act of 2024
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 513
YEA on S 3857 — Jamul Indian Village Land Transfer Act
2024-12-18 · Cong. 118 · house roll 512
YEA on S 1351 — Stop Institutional Child Abuse Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 511
YEA on HR 1101 — Lumbee Fairness Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 510
YEA on Never Again Education Reauthorization Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 509
YEA on HR 115 — Midnight Rules Relief Act
2024-12-17 · Cong. 118 · house roll 508
NAY on HR 115 — Midnight Rules Relief Act

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$0	$27,332	1
2024	$4,055,644	$12,425,782	114
2022	$215,389	$325,273	32

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$8,840	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$8,840	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	oppose	$3,500	Digital ads
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$300,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$36,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	HMP	oppose	$30,000	Media Production - Estimate
—	HMP	oppose	$17,300	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	oppose	$1,000	Digital ads
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL …	oppose	$3,500	Digital ads
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,750	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC	oppose	$10,000	Digital ads buy and production
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$3,000	Administrative consulting
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$1,500	Online digital editing
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$10,050	Online digital ad buy & production costs
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$240	Administrative consulting
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$720	Administrative consulting
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	support	$50,000	ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICATION / SMS MESSAGES
—	HMP	oppose	$49,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	support	$50,000	NON-CONTRIBUTION ACCT: ONLINE ADVERTISING / EMAIL COMMUNICA…
—	HMP	oppose	$90,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$36,980	Online video production costs
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$8,840	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	support	$22,973	Online digital ad buy & production costs
—	HMP	oppose	$17,300	Television Advertising - Estimate
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$41,289	CANVASSING

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$1,500
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$240
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$3,000
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$36,980
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$22,972
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$720
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTI…	24E	$10,050
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	24E	$50,000
2026-02-25	MISSION FIRST PEOPLE ALWAYS PAC	24K	$-1,000
2025-11-24	RYAN LLC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (RYANPAC)	24K	$5,000
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	24A	$4,340
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	24A	$1,070
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	24A	$789
2025-03-16	INNOVATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$-5,000
2025-03-04	BOLD ACTIVE CONSERVATIVES OF NEBRASKA PAC	24K	$-2,000
2025-02-20	SYSCO CORPORATION GOOD GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	24K	$-500
2025-02-03	IN THE ARENA PAC	24K	$-2,500
2025-02-03	IN THE ARENA PAC	24K	$2,500
2025-01-27	US ONCOLOGY INC. NETWORK POLITICAL ACTION COMMI…	24K	$-1,000
2022-12-31	THE CIGNA GROUP EMPLOYEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMI…	24K	$-1,500
2022-12-31	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-50
2022-12-29	WINRED	24K	$-6

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$22,972	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$240	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$36,980	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$3,000	pas2
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$720	pas2
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$10,050	pas2
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$27,332	fec_ies
—	VOTEVETS	opposes_independently	$3,881	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$23,517	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$45,200	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$960	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$50	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$31,182	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	opposes_independently	$27,332	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$769,608	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$241,920	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$181,440	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$769,608	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$4,848	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,728,648	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$302,400	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$769,608	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,213	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$466,560	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$13,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$51,453	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$1,728,648	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,950	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,100	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$41,289	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$300,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,750	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$36,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,840	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$68,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,354	fec_ies
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	opposes_independently	$3,500	fec_ies
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	opposes_independently	$3,500	fec_ies
—	WOMEN FOR AMERICAN VALUES AND ETHICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (A/K/A WAVE PAC)	opposes_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$10,050	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$1,500	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$22,973	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$36,980	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$720	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$240	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,300	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$90,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$49,500	fec_ies
—	HMP	opposes_independently	$17,300	fec_ies
—	FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2026-02-25	MISSION FIRST PEOPLE ALWAYS PAC	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2025-11-24	RYAN LLC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (RYANPAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	contributed_to	$1,070	pas2
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	contributed_to	$789	pas2
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	contributed_to	$4,340	pas2
2025-03-16	INNOVATION FUND	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-03-04	BOLD ACTIVE CONSERVATIVES OF NEBRASKA PAC	contributed_to	$-2,000	pas2
2025-02-20	SYSCO CORPORATION GOOD GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2025-02-03	IN THE ARENA PAC	contributed_to	$-2,500	pas2
2025-02-03	IN THE ARENA PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2025-01-27	US ONCOLOGY INC. NETWORK POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2024-11-01	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$1,320	fec_ies
2024-10-28	FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-10-28	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E	opposes_independently	$48,188	fec_ies
2024-10-25	PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA	supports_independently	$8,624	fec_ies
2024-10-25	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$194	fec_ies
2024-10-25	SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	supports_independently	$11,666	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$1,075,080	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$119,151	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$40,000	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-10-23	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,018	fec_ies
2024-10-22	DCCC	opposes_independently	$11,990	fec_ies
2024-10-22	DCCC	opposes_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-10-21	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$19,018	fec_ies

Outbound (7)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	STEEL FOR CA-48	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MICHELLE STEEL FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
2024-02-15	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 7365 — VETS Safe Travel Act	—	cosponsor	sponsorship
2023-11-02	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 6175 — NO GOTION Act	—	cosponsor	sponsorship
2023-10-11	sponsor_of_bill	HR 5933 — DETERRENT Act	—	sponsor	sponsorship
2023-07-13	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 3238 — Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act of 2023	—	cosponsor	sponsorship
2023-05-10	cosponsor_of_bill	HR 3172 — Vietnam Human Rights Act	—	cosponsor	sponsorship

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