JOY, ELIZABETH L

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0NY20111
Internal id: 886482a2-9a7b-426b-8198-f240f45011b8
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NY-20. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	782,695
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$86,491
Income	Per-capita income	$48,575
Income	In poverty	11.9%
Income	Unemployed	4.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.455
Race	White alone	73.8%
Race	Black alone	9.0%
Race	Asian alone	5.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	7.4%
Race	Two or more races	8.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	9.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	88.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	3.6%
Education	High school or higher	66.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.9%
Education	Advanced degree	20.0%
Household	Family households	56.1%
Household	Avg household size	2.26
Household	Never married (15+)	38.2%
Housing	Median home value	$287,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,276
Housing	Single-family detached	52.6%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.9%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.7%
Housing	Vacant units	8.6%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.4%
Health	With a disability	13.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.7%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.7%
Commute	Drove alone	69.6%
Commute	Public transit	2.9%
Commute	Worked from home	15.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$238	$23,158	$0	$0	$0
2022	$1,169,098	$1,180,184	$22,920	$0	$958,676
2020	$380,630	$346,624	$34,007	$0	$353,790

Elections

2020 general house · NY-20 — lost_general
2022 general house · NY-20 — lost_general

Committees

JOY FOR NY — principal · type H
JOY FOR NY-20 — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-11-10	WINRED	24K	$-10
2022-11-04	ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLIT…	24K	$5,000
2022-11-03	CONSERVATIVE PROMISES PAC	24K	$4,000
2022-11-03	NRCC	24C	$50,000
2022-10-11	MAGGIE'S LIST	24K	$2,500
2022-10-07	JOY PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-10-01	WINRED	24K	$-75
2022-09-30	LANGWORTHY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-09-20	FAITH IN AMERICA PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-14	FISCHBACH FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-09-13	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONA…	24K	$1,500
2022-09-05	NRCC	24K	$5,000
2022-09-02	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-09-01	JULIA LETLOW FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-09-01	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-09-01	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2022-08-30	AMERICAN SECURITY PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-08-29	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	24K	$5,000
2022-06-29	E-PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-06-28	MAGGIE'S LIST	24K	$1,000
2022-06-16	NEW YORK STATE CONSERVATIVE PARTY	24K	$500
2022-05-16	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	24K	$1,500
2022-05-11	WINRED	24K	$-100
2022-05-10	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONA…	24K	$2,500
2022-04-18	WINRED	24K	$-10

Connected on the graph

Inbound (42)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-11-10	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-11-04	ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (ABC PAC)	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-11-03	CONSERVATIVE PROMISES PAC	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2022-11-03	NRCC	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-10-11	MAGGIE'S LIST	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-10-07	JOY PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-10-01	WINRED	contributed_to	$-75	pas2
2022-09-30	LANGWORTHY FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-20	FAITH IN AMERICA PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-14	FISCHBACH FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-13	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-09-05	NRCC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-09-01	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-09-01	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-09-01	JULIA LETLOW FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-30	AMERICAN SECURITY PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-08-29	HUCK PAC FOR AMERICA	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-29	E-PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-28	MAGGIE'S LIST	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-06-16	NEW YORK STATE CONSERVATIVE PARTY	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-05-16	VICTORY AND FREEDOM PAC (VAF PAC)	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2022-05-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2022-05-10	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-04-18	WINRED	contributed_to	$-10	pas2
2022-04-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-04-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-04-12	WINRED	contributed_to	$-4	pas2
2022-03-31	JERRY CARL FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-31	GADS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-30	NY REPUBLICAN FEDERAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-29	CMR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-10	E-PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-10	E-PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-02-22	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-12-29	GADS PAC	contributed_to	$1,500	pas2
2021-12-14	NEW YORK STATE CONSERVATIVE PARTY	contributed_to	$350	pas2
2021-12-01	LEE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-23	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2021-06-29	TENACIOUS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-06-15	ELISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-06-11	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	contributed_to	$8	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	JOY FOR NY	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	JOY FOR NY-20	—		candidate_committees

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