VARGAS, ANTHONY 'TONY'

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2NE02132
Internal id: c456b83d-9acc-43e3-9cf8-24f1ee53a818
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), NE-02. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	664,272
People	Median age	36
Income	Median household income	$83,942
Income	Per-capita income	$46,850
Income	In poverty	11.0%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.477
Race	White alone	70.9%
Race	Black alone	9.5%
Race	Asian alone	4.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	13.4%
Race	Two or more races	9.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	9.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	84.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	9.3%
Education	High school or higher	62.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.5%
Education	Advanced degree	16.0%
Household	Family households	61.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.46
Household	Never married (15+)	34.4%
Housing	Median home value	$276,900
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,205
Housing	Single-family detached	67.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	3.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.4%
Housing	Vacant units	5.4%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.2%
Health	With a disability	10.7%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.1%
Commute	Drove alone	72.2%
Commute	Public transit	0.8%
Commute	Worked from home	16.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$54,180	$92,542	$42,802	$0	$0
2024	$7,515,611	$7,487,835	$81,164	$0	$6,659,264
2022	$3,409,926	$3,356,537	$53,388	$0	$2,986,113

Elections

2022 general house · NE-2 — lost_general
2024 general house · NE-2 — lost_general

Committees

VARGAS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$18,984	$0	3
2024	$1,446,475	$3,532,131	117
2022	$6,667	$1,949,835	20

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$8,624	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$7,390	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising- Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$360	ESTIMATE: Phone Banking
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$4,965	ESTIMATE: Door Hangers
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$32,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$50	ESTIMATE: Stickers
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$19,256	Direct Mail - Estimate
—	HMP	support	$6,000	Digital Production - Estimate
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	support	$7,916	ESTIMATE: Direct Mail Production & Postage

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-09-29	MICHIGAN SUGAR COMPANY GROWERS POLITICAL ACTION…	24K	$1,000
2025-08-19	UNITED STEELWORKERS POLITICAL ACTION FUND	24K	$-5,000
2025-03-31	PROGRESSIVE CHOICES PAC	24K	$-1,000
2025-02-19	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF…	24K	$-5,000
2022-11-08	DEFENSE, ECONOMIC RENEWAL, EDUCATION AND KNOWLE…	24K	$-1,000
2022-11-07	GLENN F. IVEY FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-11-07	NEBRASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY	24C	$6,750
2022-11-07	CLARKE FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-11-06	CLF	24A	$750
2022-11-05	FRIENDS OF JIM CLYBURN	24K	$2,000
2022-11-04	COMMITTEE FOR A DEMOCRATIC FUTURE	24K	$1,000
2022-11-04	WIN THE HOUSE NOW PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-11-03	AMERICAN ACADEMY OF FAMILY PHYSICIANS POLITICAL…	24K	$2,500
2022-11-03	NEBRASKA DEMOCRATIC PARTY	24C	$11,157
2022-11-03	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-11-03	JAMIE RASKIN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-11-03	MARK TAKANO FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-11-02	DCCC	24K	$2,539
2022-11-01	PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND INC PAC, DBA PLA…	24K	$2,500
2022-11-01	MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE…	24K	$5,000
2022-11-01	CLF	24A	$70,000
2022-11-01	NRCC	24A	$525
2022-11-01	DOING RIGHT - RESULTS ACTION UNITY LEADERSHIP P…	24K	$1,000
2022-11-01	NRCC	24A	$27,446
2022-11-01	SCHIFF FOR SENATE	24K	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$8,624	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$360	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$4,965	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$7,390	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$50	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$50	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$360	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$3,714	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$7,390	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$7,916	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$105,000	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$70	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$4,965	fec_ies
—	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$8,624	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$19,256	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
—	HMP	supports_independently	$32,000	fec_ies
2025-09-29	MICHIGAN SUGAR COMPANY GROWERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2025-08-19	UNITED STEELWORKERS POLITICAL ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-03-31	PROGRESSIVE CHOICES PAC	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2025-02-19	D.R.I.V.E. - DEM, REP, IND VOTER ED (THE PAC OF THE INT'L BRHD OF TEAMSTERS)	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2024-11-01	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$1,925	fec_ies
2024-10-30	NRCC	opposes_independently	$69,750	fec_ies
2024-10-29	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$2,029	fec_ies
2024-10-29	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2024-10-29	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$260,000	fec_ies
2024-10-28	RED STATE NEBRASKA	opposes_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2024-10-28	RED STATE NEBRASKA	opposes_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2024-10-28	NRCC	opposes_independently	$10,039	fec_ies
2024-10-28	NRCC	opposes_independently	$157,914	fec_ies
2024-10-26	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-10-26	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$9,420	fec_ies
2024-10-25	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$75,929	fec_ies
2024-10-24	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-10-24	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$76,956	fec_ies
2024-10-23	NRCC	opposes_independently	$120,900	fec_ies
2024-10-23	LATINO VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$16,014	fec_ies
2024-10-23	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
2024-10-23	NRCC	opposes_independently	$26,040	fec_ies
2024-10-22	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$500,000	fec_ies
2024-10-22	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$358,637	fec_ies
2024-10-22	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$31,537	fec_ies
2024-10-22	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$6,375	fec_ies
2024-10-22	PROTECT AND SERVE PAC	opposes_independently	$14,483	fec_ies
2024-10-18	CHC BOLD PAC	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2024-10-18	NRCC	opposes_independently	$74,400	fec_ies
2024-10-17	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$6,375	fec_ies
2024-10-17	NRCC	opposes_independently	$186,000	fec_ies
2024-10-17	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$140,250	fec_ies
2024-10-17	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$6,375	fec_ies
2024-10-17	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-10-16	HEALTHCARE FOR ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
2024-10-11	DMFI PAC	supports_independently	$1,471	fec_ies
2024-10-11	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$140,250	fec_ies
2024-10-11	BIG RED LEADERSHIP PAC	opposes_independently	$6,375	fec_ies
2024-10-10	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-10-09	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$75	fec_ies
2024-10-09	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$4	fec_ies
2024-10-08	NRCC	opposes_independently	$48,281	fec_ies
2024-10-08	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$6	fec_ies
2024-10-08	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$6	fec_ies
2024-10-07	NRCC	opposes_independently	$32,895	fec_ies
2024-10-07	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$124,333	fec_ies
2024-10-07	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
2024-10-07	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$124,333	fec_ies
2024-10-07	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$6,000	fec_ies
2024-10-04	NRCC	opposes_independently	$212,628	fec_ies
2024-10-04	NRCC	opposes_independently	$86,189	fec_ies
2024-10-03	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-10-02	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$61	fec_ies
2024-10-02	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$125	fec_ies
2024-10-02	WORKING AMERICA	supports_independently	$168	fec_ies
2024-10-02	CHC BOLD PAC	supports_independently	$124,947	fec_ies
2024-10-01	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$78,750	fec_ies
2024-09-27	NRCC	opposes_independently	$12,500	fec_ies
2024-09-27	NRCC	opposes_independently	$58,289	fec_ies
2024-09-27	NRCC	opposes_independently	$204,026	fec_ies
2024-09-27	LCV VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$1,166	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-09-26	DCCC	supports_independently	$4,250	fec_ies
2024-09-26	HEALTHCARE FOR ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-09-26	HEALTHCARE FOR ACTION PAC	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	VARGAS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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