STARBUCK, ROBBY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2TN05339
Internal id: 7cb17596-fd51-494e-b3a9-cf26aee5c3a3
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TN-05. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	796,623
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$93,904
Income	Per-capita income	$53,402
Income	In poverty	9.2%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.482
Race	White alone	70.8%
Race	Black alone	12.2%
Race	Asian alone	4.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	10.5%
Race	Two or more races	8.9%
Origin	Foreign-born	12.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	84.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	7.6%
Education	High school or higher	68.8%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	47.0%
Education	Advanced degree	17.8%
Household	Family households	66.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.50
Household	Never married (15+)	29.8%
Housing	Median home value	$457,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,622
Housing	Single-family detached	65.1%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.0%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.3%
Housing	Vacant units	6.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.6%
Health	With a disability	9.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.4%
Commute	Drove alone	70.3%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	20.1%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$0	$115,788	$0
2024	$5,311	$5,544	$0	$115,788	$0
2022	$516,190	$515,957	$233	$110,477	$402,080

Elections

2022 general house · TN-5 — lost_general

Committees

ROBBY STARBUCK FOR CONGRESS LLC — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-06-20	FUND FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE	24K	$4,000
2022-06-03	WINRED	24K	$-25
2022-04-22	FUND FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE	24K	$1,000
2022-02-22	SAVE AMERICA STOP SOCIALISM PAC	24K	$2,900
2022-02-08	MAKING A SENSIBLE SHIFT IN ELECTIONS PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-02-06	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2022-01-20	WINRED	24K	$-1
2021-12-28	KEEP ELECTING NEW TALENT PAC	24K	$2,000
2021-12-07	CUT THE BULL PAC	24K	$1,000
2021-11-06	WINRED	24K	$-20
2021-10-28	WINRED	24K	$-2,900
2021-10-15	WINRED	24K	$-25
2021-09-24	WINRED	24K	$-50
2021-09-24	WINRED	24K	$-50
2021-09-24	DEFENSE OF FREEDOM PAC	24K	$2,000
2021-09-23	GADS PAC	24K	$2,000
2021-09-13	WINRED	24K	$-100
2021-08-28	WINRED	24K	$-50

Connected on the graph

Inbound (18)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-06-20	AMERICA'S FUTURE	contributed_to	$4,000	pas2
2022-06-03	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2022-04-22	AMERICA'S FUTURE	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-22	SAVE AMERICA STOP SOCIALISM PAC	contributed_to	$2,900	pas2
2022-02-08	MAKING A SENSIBLE SHIFT IN ELECTIONS PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2022-01-20	WINRED	contributed_to	$-1	pas2
2021-12-28	KEEP ELECTING NEW TALENT PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-12-07	CUT THE BULL PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-11-06	WINRED	contributed_to	$-20	pas2
2021-10-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2,900	pas2
2021-10-15	WINRED	contributed_to	$-25	pas2
2021-09-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2021-09-24	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2
2021-09-24	DEFENSE OF FREEDOM PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-09-23	GADS PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-09-13	WINRED	contributed_to	$-100	pas2
2021-08-28	WINRED	contributed_to	$-50	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ROBBY STARBUCK FOR CONGRESS LLC	—		candidate_committees

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