LIRA, JOHN

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2TX23132
Internal id: 2bee8531-1a5b-4087-8de2-460712edd1da
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-23. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	770,809
People	Median age	35
Income	Median household income	$79,042
Income	Per-capita income	$37,363
Income	In poverty	13.6%
Income	Unemployed	4.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.470
Race	White alone	44.8%
Race	Black alone	3.8%
Race	Asian alone	2.7%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	62.9%
Race	Two or more races	35.6%
Origin	Foreign-born	15.8%
Language	Speaks English only at home	54.1%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	42.5%
Education	High school or higher	55.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	31.1%
Education	Advanced degree	12.3%
Household	Family households	73.4%
Household	Avg household size	2.88
Household	Never married (15+)	32.5%
Housing	Median home value	$258,100
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,238
Housing	Single-family detached	71.9%
Housing	Built before 1940	2.1%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.8%
Housing	Vacant units	10.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.5%
Health	With a disability	13.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	8.4%
Commute	Drove alone	71.0%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	13.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$12,865	$13,069	$0	$0	$0
2022	$675,079	$674,875	$204	$0	$603,496

Elections

2022 general house · TX-23 — lost_general

Committees

TEXANS FOR JOHN LIRA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-28	LATINO VICTORY FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-10-06	GALLEGO FOR ARIZONA	24K	$2,000
2022-09-29	LIVABLE COMMUNITIES PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-21	SCOTT PETERS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,500
2022-09-15	SQUARE ONE POLITICS	24K	$250
2022-09-13	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITI…	24K	$2,000
2022-08-17	NAPOLITANO FOR CONGRESS	24K	$1,000
2022-06-24	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS…	24K	$2,500
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	24K	$2,500
2022-06-21	CHC BOLD PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-06-21	FIGHTING FOR SOUTH TEXAS PAC	24K	$2,000
2022-03-27	DOGGETT FOR CONGRESS	24K	$500
2022-03-22	CA LUV PAC (CALIFORNIA LEADERSHIP UNITED FOR VI…	24K	$2,500
2022-03-18	VOTEVETS	24K	$2,500
2022-03-09	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNIT…	24K	$1,000
2022-02-23	CHC BOLD PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-02-22	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-02-18	LATINO VICTORY FUND	24K	$2,500
2021-12-14	AT THE TABLE!	24K	$1,000
2021-12-06	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2021-11-29	CHC BOLD PAC	24K	$2,500
2021-10-22	BEEPAC (BUILDING ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT PAC)	24K	$1,000
2021-10-21	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNIT…	24K	$1,000
2021-10-08	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2021-10-08	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	24K	$1,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (60)

date	from	type	amount	role	source
2022-10-28	LATINO VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-10-28	LATINO VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-10-06	GALLEGO FOR ARIZONA	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-10-06	GALLEGO FOR ARIZONA	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-29	LIVABLE COMMUNITIES PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-29	LIVABLE COMMUNITIES PAC	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-09-21	SCOTT PETERS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,500		pas2
2022-09-21	SCOTT PETERS FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-15	SQUARE ONE POLITICS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$250	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-15	SQUARE ONE POLITICS	contributed_to	$250		pas2
2022-09-13	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-09-13	COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-08-17	NAPOLITANO FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-08-17	NAPOLITANO FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-06-24	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-24	INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-06-23	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-21	FIGHTING FOR SOUTH TEXAS PAC	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2
2022-06-21	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$5,000		pas2
2022-06-21	CHC BOLD PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$5,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-06-21	FIGHTING FOR SOUTH TEXAS PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-27	DOGGETT FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$500		pas2
2022-03-27	DOGGETT FOR CONGRESS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-22	CA LUV PAC (CALIFORNIA LEADERSHIP UNITED FOR VICTORY PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-03-22	CA LUV PAC (CALIFORNIA LEADERSHIP UNITED FOR VICTORY PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-18	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-03-18	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-09	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNITY, PROGRESSIVE ACTION & CHANGE (LLEGO-PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-03-09	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNITY, PROGRESSIVE ACTION & CHANGE (LLEGO-PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-02-23	CHC BOLD PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-02-23	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2022-02-22	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2022-02-22	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2022-02-18	LATINO VICTORY FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2022-02-18	LATINO VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2021-12-14	AT THE TABLE!	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-12-14	AT THE TABLE!	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-12-06	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-12-06	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-11-29	CHC BOLD PAC	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2021-11-29	CHC BOLD PAC	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2021-10-22	BEEPAC (BUILDING ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-10-22	BEEPAC (BUILDING ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-10-21	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNITY, PROGRESSIVE ACTION & CHANGE (LLEGO-PAC)	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-10-21	LATINO LEADERS FOR EQUALITY, GROWTH, OPPORTUNITY, PROGRESSIVE ACTION & CHANGE (LLEGO-PAC)	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-10-08	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-10-08	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-10-08	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-10-08	FRIENDS OF DON BEYER	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-09-15	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000		pas2
2021-09-15	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2021-09-15	NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$1,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-09-15	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2021-06-23	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2021-06-23	VOTEVETS	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2021-06-16	VPP	contributed_to	$2,500		pas2
2021-06-16	VPP	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,500	24K	fec_pas2
2021-05-19	THE MAJORITY RULES	committee_contributed_to_candidate	$2,000	24K	fec_pas2
2021-05-19	THE MAJORITY RULES	contributed_to	$2,000		pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	TEXANS FOR JOHN LIRA	—		candidate_committees

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