TOTH, STEVE
R · house
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- FEC candidate id
H6TX08175- Internal id
40053d77-8749-4185-8121-c74d85890d5e- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 814,076 |
| People | Median age | 35 |
| Income | Median household income | $99,648 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $46,857 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.453 |
| Race | White alone | 55.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 12.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.3% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 32.2% |
| Race | Two or more races | 20.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 16.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 70.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 23.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 39.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.1% |
| Household | Family households | 74.7% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.89 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $312,100 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,636 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 73.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 3.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 6.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 10.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 95.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 3.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 14.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $698,325 | $574,007 | $124,318 | $13,000 | $658,628 |
| 2016 | $174,148 | $174,148 | $0 | $0 | $168,288 |
Elections
- 2016 general house · TX-2 — running
- 2016 general house · TX-8 — lost_general
- 2026 general house · TX-2 — running
Committees
- TOTH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
- TOTH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $519,477 | $1,842,767 | 35 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | support | $35,000 | AD BUY |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | support | $5,234 | TEXT MESSAGING |
| 2026-02-26 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | support | $50,006 | IE- TOTH- DIGITAL ADVERTISING (NON-CONTRIBUTION ACCOUNT) |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | support | $375,000 | AD BUY |
| 2026-02-26 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $175,000 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-25 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $100,000 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $44,000 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $68,460 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $53,400 | PLACED MEDIA: RADIO |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $46,490 | PLACED MEDIA: RADIO |
| 2026-02-23 | TURNING POINT PAC INC. | support | $14,730 | TEXT SERVICES |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $46,500 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $211,160 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-20 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $5,000 | PRODUCTION COST: TV AD |
| 2026-02-19 | TURNING POINT PAC INC. | support | $8,820 | TEXT SERVICES |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $53,200 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $333,624 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $54,570 | PLACED MEDIA: RADIO |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $21,862 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
| 2026-02-17 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | support | $29,967 | PRINT ADS |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $21,506 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
| 2026-02-12 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | support | $360 | Slate card printing & mailing (allocated federal share) |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $21,506 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $49,965 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | oppose | $302,500 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee TOTH FOR CONGRESS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STALLINGS, KYLE L. | DESERT ROYALTY COMPANY · CEO | MIDLAND, TX | 1 | $10,000 |
| NAUCK, KURT | SELF · RETAILER | SPRING, TX | 1 | $7,000 |
| SMITH, ROBERT | GEOSCIENCE ENGINEERING · CEO | HUNTSVILLE, TX | 1 | $3,643 |
| WALL, KAT | SELF EMPLOYED · BUSINESS INVESTORS | JEWETTJ, TX | 1 | $3,500 |
| COSTELLO, GARRETT | SELF EMPLOYED · CONSULTING | SPRING, TX | 1 | $3,000 |
| LAMB, ADAM | ONE PERCENT LIFE · FOUNDER | THE WOODLANDS, TX | 1 | $1,041 |
| CHARBONNET, SHEILA | RETIRED · RETIRED | SPRING, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| SLOVACEK, HOOVER | HOOVER SLOVACEK LLP · OWNER | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| SEKULA-GIBBS, SHELLEY | RETIRED · RETIRED | THE WOODLANDS, TX | 1 | $1,000 |
| DEAVER, AUDRA | JDSI · SELF EMPLOYED | KINGWOOD, TX | 1 | $260 |
| JOHNSON, DAVID | MILWAUKEE VALVE · NATIONAL WHOLESALE GOVERNMENT MARINE | SPRING, TX | 1 | $260 |
| CAVIN, WYLIE | SELF-EMPLOYED · CONSULTANT | SPICEWOOD, TX | 1 | $250 |
| POWER, ROBERT | MILPOWER SOURCE · SALES ENGINEER | SPRING, TX | 1 | $250 |
| OSTRICH, MARK J. | DONOR DECLINED TO PROVIDE · DONOR DECLINED TO PROVIDE | JEFFERSON, LA | 1 | $150 |
| HOOVER, DAWN | RETIRED · RETIRED | SPRING, TX | 1 | $104 |
| WILLIAMSON, KIRK | ADAIR CONCEPTS · COO | SPRING, TX | 1 | $104 |
| GIBBS, DAN | RETIRED · RETIRED | HOUSTON, TX | 1 | $100 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (82)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $20,920 | pas2 | |
| — | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $49,965 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-31 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $2 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-10 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-10 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $0 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-03 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $295 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-02 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | contributed_to | $35,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-02 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | supports_independently | $35,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | contributed_to | $375,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-26 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | supports_independently | $50,006 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | supports_independently | $375,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-26 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $175,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | supports_independently | $5,234 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-26 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | contributed_to | $5,233 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-26 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $175,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-26 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $50,005 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-25 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $100,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-25 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $100,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $44,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $44,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $53,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $68,460 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $53,400 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-24 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $68,460 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $46,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-23 | TURNING POINT PAC INC. | supports_independently | $14,730 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $211,160 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $46,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $46,490 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $211,160 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-23 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $46,490 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-20 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-20 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $4 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $408 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-19 | TURNING POINT PAC INC. | supports_independently | $8,820 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-19 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $42 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $53,200 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | supports_independently | $29,967 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $21,861 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $333,624 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $53,200 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $333,624 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $54,570 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $54,570 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-17 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $21,862 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-17 | ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | contributed_to | $29,967 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-16 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $169 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $21,506 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-12 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $360 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $21,506 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-12 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $21,506 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-12 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $21,506 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $51,300 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $51,300 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $302,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $49,965 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-11 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $302,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-10 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $21,506 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-10 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $21,506 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-09 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | supports_independently | $360 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-09 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $360 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-09 | TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC | contributed_to | $49 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-06 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $12,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-06 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $12,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-06 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-06 | FREEDOM FIRST PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-06 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $1,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $32,320 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $49,965 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $22,256 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | contributed_to | $22,256 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $22,256 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $32,320 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $49,965 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-02-05 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $22,256 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-01-28 | FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | opposes_independently | $20,920 | fec_ies | |
| 2025-12-08 | DAVID VOLKERT & ASSOCIATES, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE ('DVA/HC PAC') | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | TOTH FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | TOTH FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |