NEHLS, TREVER

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6TX22283
Internal id: 0f47b6df-d109-48dc-8e0d-03721319a435
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-22. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	833,743
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$110,835
Income	Per-capita income	$48,190
Income	In poverty	8.0%
Income	Unemployed	4.9%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.439
Race	White alone	45.8%
Race	Black alone	12.2%
Race	Asian alone	15.0%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	29.4%
Race	Two or more races	19.2%
Origin	Foreign-born	24.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	64.5%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	19.4%
Education	High school or higher	66.3%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	47.0%
Education	Advanced degree	18.3%
Household	Family households	78.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.92
Household	Never married (15+)	27.7%
Housing	Median home value	$365,400
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,663
Housing	Single-family detached	78.4%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	3.1%
Housing	Vacant units	6.9%
Service	Veterans (18+)	5.3%
Health	With a disability	9.0%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	94.1%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.4%
Commute	Drove alone	71.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.7%
Commute	Worked from home	16.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$182,538	$146,145	$36,393	$0	$115,467

Elections

2026 general house · TX-22 — running

Committees

TREVER NEHLS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$141,263	$0	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-02-17	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	support	$9,447	IE-Nehls, Trever-Media Production
2026-02-13	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	support	$60,264	IE-Nehls, Trever-Media Buy
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	support	$35,776	IE-Nehls-Direct Mail
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	support	$35,776	IE-Nehls-Direct Mail

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2026-03-31	BIG IDEAS CREATE EXCELLENCE PAC	24K	$1,000
2026-03-26	SMART TD PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-03-20	TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND	24K	$2,500
2026-03-18	WORKING FOR OHIO	24K	$5,000
2026-02-27	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-25	PHILLIPS 66 PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-23	MR. SOUTHERN MISSOURIAN IN THE HOUSE PAC	24K	$5,000
2026-02-23	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONA…	24K	$2,500
2026-02-17	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	24E	$9,447
2026-02-13	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	24E	$60,264
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	24E	$35,775
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	24E	$35,775
2026-02-03	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS …	24K	$5,000
2026-02-03	EMMER FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2026-01-12	BUCKEYE LIBERTY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2026-01-12	JIM JORDAN FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2025-12-29	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	24K	$5,000
2025-12-29	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2025-12-22	MIKE JOHNSON FOR LOUISIANA	24K	$2,000
2025-12-22	AMERICAN REVIVAL PAC	24K	$5,000
2025-12-05	RAPTOR PAC	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (25)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-03-31	BIG IDEAS CREATE EXCELLENCE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2026-03-26	SMART TD PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-03-20	TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-03-18	WORKING FOR OHIO	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-27	FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-25	PHILLIPS 66 PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-23	BUILD POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS (BUILDPAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2026-02-23	MR. SOUTHERN MISSOURIAN IN THE HOUSE PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-02-17	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	supports_independently	$9,447	fec_ies
2026-02-17	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	contributed_to	$9,447	pas2
2026-02-13	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	contributed_to	$60,264	pas2
2026-02-13	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	supports_independently	$60,264	fec_ies
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	supports_independently	$35,776	fec_ies
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	supports_independently	$35,776	fec_ies
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	contributed_to	$35,775	pas2
2026-02-11	DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	contributed_to	$35,775	pas2
2026-02-03	EMMER FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-02-03	ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2026-01-12	JIM JORDAN FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2026-01-12	BUCKEYE LIBERTY PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-12-29	THE EYE OF THE TIGER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-12-29	SCALISE FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2025-12-22	AMERICAN REVIVAL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2025-12-22	MIKE JOHNSON FOR LOUISIANA	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2025-12-05	RAPTOR PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	TREVER NEHLS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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