CASTRO, JULIÁN
D · president
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- FEC candidate id
P00009092- Internal id
654a7255-cefb-42ac-8cc2-0c427aaf8940- Status
- challenger
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $220,388 | $17,877 | $202,511 | $0 | $213,388 |
Elections
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
- 2020 general president — running
Committees
- PEOPLE FIRST FUTURE — principal · type Q
- PEOPLE FIRST FUTURE — independent · type Q
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | independent_committee_of | PEOPLE FIRST FUTURE | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | PEOPLE FIRST FUTURE | — | candidate_committees |