KUNCE, LUCAS

D · senate

FEC candidate id: S2MO00528
Internal id: d5c04f03-e1a3-4863-9e95-4b3fe792b1bd
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Missouri. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	6,191,814
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$70,702
Income	Per-capita income	$39,695
Income	In poverty	12.6%
Income	Unemployed	4.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.465
Race	White alone	77.5%
Race	Black alone	11.0%
Race	Asian alone	2.1%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	5.2%
Race	Two or more races	7.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	4.5%
Language	Speaks English only at home	93.3%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.9%
Education	High school or higher	62.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	32.4%
Education	Advanced degree	12.6%
Household	Family households	62.1%
Household	Avg household size	2.40
Household	Never married (15+)	31.7%
Housing	Median home value	$230,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,033
Housing	Single-family detached	70.5%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.7%
Housing	Vacant units	11.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	7.3%
Health	With a disability	14.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.3%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.7%
Commute	Drove alone	74.8%
Commute	Public transit	0.8%
Commute	Worked from home	13.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$5,735,055	$5,727,773	$7,282	$99,500	$5,494,340

Elections

2022 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · MO-S — running
2022 general senate · MO-S — running
2022 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · MO-S — running
2022 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · MO-S — running
2022 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · MO-S — running
2024 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MO-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MO-S — running
2024 general senate · MO-S — running
2024 general senate · MO-S — running
2024 general senate · MO-S — running
2024 general senate · MO-S — lost_general

Committees

HEARTLAND PATRIOTS — principal · type Q
HEARTLAND PATRIOTS — independent · type Q

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$0	$3,018,691	12

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2024-11-04	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$57,235	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-30	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$159,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-25	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$45,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-18	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$917,710	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-10	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$56,960	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-04	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$15,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-10-03	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$33,840	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-09-24	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$40,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-09-19	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$841,910	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-09-13	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$400	MEDIA PLACEMENT
2024-09-12	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$15,121	MEDIA PRODUCTION
2024-09-12	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	oppose	$836,515	MEDIA PLACEMENT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-10-17	VOTEVETS	24K	$-2,500
2022-08-02	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMIT…	24E	$158
2022-07-30	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMIT…	24E	$728
2022-07-28	IRON PAC	24Z	$75
2022-07-25	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	24E	$50
2022-07-19	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	24K	$5,000
2022-06-29	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	24E	$1,488
2022-04-01	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	24E	$15
2022-03-31	IRON PAC	24Z	$75
2022-03-31	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	24E	$30
2022-03-29	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	24E	$150
2022-03-21	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	24K	$1,000
2022-03-21	VOTEVETS	24K	$2,500
2022-02-16	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	24Z	$134
2022-02-13	MORE BLUE	24K	$100
2022-02-11	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	24K	$2,500
2022-02-06	IRON PAC	24Z	$75
2021-12-28	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	24K	$1,000
2021-09-30	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	24Z	$274
2021-09-21	STOP SENATE REPUBLICANS PAC	24K	$2,500
2021-09-20	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	24K	$500
2021-09-15	VOTEVETS	24K	$5,000
2021-07-19	CAMPAIGN TO ELECT A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY	24K	$2,800
2021-06-29	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	24K	$1,000
2021-04-02	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	24K	$87

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee HEARTLAND PATRIOTS.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
MONTGOMERY, DENISE	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	STAUNTON, VA	15	$1,218
SUDOW, WILLIAM	MADISON MARQUETTE · REAL ESTATE EXEC	MCLEAN, VA	1	$500
JONES, JUDY	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	REHOBOTH BEACH, DE	2	$500
WILLCOX, DAVID	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	SAINT CLAIR SHORES, MI	2	$300
KRAMER, PHILLIP	HMH · DOCTOR	EAST MILLSTONE, NJ	1	$250
BAUER, CHRISTOPHER S	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	DEFIANCE, MO	3	$250
VON SIMSON, ERNEST	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	NEW YORK, NY	1	$250
SMITH, JOHN	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	GLADWYNE, PA	1	$250
FARQUHAR, JOHN	GREENSPOON MARDER LLP · ATTORNEY	PLANTATION, FL	4	$112
LEVIN, CARYL	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	ELKINS PARK, PA	2	$100
ELSWICK, LANDON	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	EMERALD ISLE, NC	2	$68
BRUBAKER, MARCY KELLY	NIGHT HAWK PRODUCTIONS · WRITER	BEVERLY HILLS, CA	1	$50
SANDER, GERARD	MEDIMPACT · PHARMACIST	MARYLAND HEIGHTS, MO	2	$50
WINSLOW, WILLIAM	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	SANTA MONICA, CA	1	$45
LOUIE, EDMUND	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	SAN FRANCISCO, CA	4	$42
HIRAOKA, JOHN	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	HONOLULU, HI	3	$40
MULLINS, MARILYN	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	SAINT CHARLES, MO	2	$40
COTTON, BENJAMIN	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	HUNTSVILLE, AL	2	$35
KAHN, JUDITH	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	OAKLAND, CA	1	$25
JEUDE, ALAN	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	SAINT LOUIS, MO	1	$25
HUTCHINSON, ROBERT	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	ASHEVILLE, NC	1	$25
OROARK, PATRICIA	NONE · RETIRED	CARL JUNCTION, MO	1	$25
GILLASPY, BETSY	GILLASPY RHODE FADDIS & BENN · ATTORNEY	REDMOND, WA	1	$25
FLEISCHER, ROBERT	WILLIS · M+A ADVISOR	NEW YORK, NY	1	$25
WARFIELD, NANCY	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	GREENBRAE, CA	1	$25

Connected on the graph

Inbound (40)

date	from	type	amount	source
2024-11-04	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$57,235	fec_ies
2024-10-30	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$159,000	fec_ies
2024-10-25	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$45,000	fec_ies
2024-10-18	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$917,710	fec_ies
2024-10-10	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$56,960	fec_ies
2024-10-04	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
2024-10-03	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$33,840	fec_ies
2024-09-24	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$40,000	fec_ies
2024-09-19	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$841,910	fec_ies
2024-09-13	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$400	fec_ies
2024-09-12	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$15,121	fec_ies
2024-09-12	SHOW-ME STRONG PAC	opposes_independently	$836,515	fec_ies
2022-10-17	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$-2,500	pas2
2022-08-02	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$158	pas2
2022-07-30	BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$728	pas2
2022-07-28	IRON PAC	contributed_to	$75	pas2
2022-07-25	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	contributed_to	$50	pas2
2022-07-19	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-06-29	MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	contributed_to	$1,488	pas2
2022-04-01	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	contributed_to	$15	pas2
2022-03-31	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	contributed_to	$30	pas2
2022-03-31	IRON PAC	contributed_to	$75	pas2
2022-03-29	THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC	contributed_to	$150	pas2
2022-03-21	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-21	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-16	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$134	pas2
2022-02-13	MORE BLUE	contributed_to	$100	pas2
2022-02-11	LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-02-06	IRON PAC	contributed_to	$75	pas2
2021-12-28	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-30	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$274	pas2
2021-09-21	STOP SENATE REPUBLICANS PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2021-09-20	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-09-15	VOTEVETS	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2021-07-19	CAMPAIGN TO ELECT A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY	contributed_to	$2,800	pas2
2021-06-29	WE HAVE THE PEOPLE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-04-02	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$87	pas2
2021-03-31	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$220	pas2
2021-03-31	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$400	pas2
2021-03-22	PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$125	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	HEARTLAND PATRIOTS	—		candidate_committees

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