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LAKE, KARI

R Β· senate

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FEC candidate id
S4AZ00220
Internal id
08293607-02dc-4c1c-ae80-da529bb3339f
Status
open seat

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation7,378,838
PeopleMedian age39
IncomeMedian household income$79,964
IncomePer-capita income$42,503
IncomeIn poverty12.5%
IncomeUnemployed5.1%
IncomeGini inequality index0.464
RaceWhite alone59.0%
RaceBlack alone4.6%
RaceAsian alone3.6%
RaceHispanic or Latino31.4%
RaceTwo or more races19.5%
OriginForeign-born13.0%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home74.3%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home19.3%
EducationHigh school or higher56.8%
EducationBachelor's or higher33.3%
EducationAdvanced degree13.0%
HouseholdFamily households64.3%
HouseholdAvg household size2.53
HouseholdNever married (15+)34.1%
HousingMedian home value$394,500
HousingMedian gross rent$1,543
HousingSingle-family detached64.2%
HousingBuilt before 19401.5%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)4.3%
HousingVacant units10.6%
ServiceVeterans (18+)7.9%
HealthWith a disability13.8%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband91.5%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet6.0%
CommuteDrove alone66.8%
CommutePublic transit1.1%
CommuteWorked from home18.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$365,326$112,032$471,508$1,007,764$217,274
2024$26,252,199$26,033,986$218,213$696,535$23,239,868

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 18.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
open seat-5.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2024$2,088,787$30,253,381413

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$1,000MILEAGE (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$293MILEAGE (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$134MILEAGE (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACoppose$134MILEAGE (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$1,065CANVASSING (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$18,667CANVASSING (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$14,104CANVASSING (ESTIMATE)
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupport$349MILEAGE (ESTIMATE)
β€”WINSENATEoppose$9,000Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$560,434Digital Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$4,699Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$2,216,202Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$12,132Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$10,775Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$250,000Digital Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$50Online Content & Production - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$1,750Online Content & Production - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$8,594Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$703,700Digital Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$18,171Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$2,321,340Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$3,412,830Media Buy - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$3,363Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$13,000Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate
β€”WINSENATEoppose$373,340Digital Media Buy - Estimate

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2025-08-31THE HAWKEYE PAC24K$-5,000
2025-04-02PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$206
2025-04-02PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$472
2025-04-02PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$447
2025-04-02PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$542
2025-04-02PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$815

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee KARI LAKE FOR SENATE.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

DonorEmployer / occupationCity, STGiftsTotal
SHEA, KEVINSFC Β· SALESCARROLLTON, TX1$100
MILLER, GEORGERETIRED Β· RETIREDLAKEWOOD, CO1$100
MAREK, SCOTTDSM HOIST INC Β· CRANE INSPECTION SERVICENORWALK, IA1$100
POLK, JOHNRETIRED Β· RETIREDALBUQUERQUE, NM1$99
BOHANNON, JIMRETIRED Β· RETIREDWILLCOX, AZ1$99
PORTER, RAYMONDRETIRED Β· RETIREDDUMFRIES, VA1$99
GORNIK, DAVE MREMC2 GROUP Β· COOMESA, AZ1$99
ANDERSON, CHARLESRETIRED Β· RETIREDDEARBORN, MI1$99
SMITH, ARTHURRETIRED Β· RETIREDPALM BEACH GARDENS, FL1$99
BIRMINGHAM, BRIANBDBIRMINGHAMCOM Β· PUBLIC INSURANCE ADJUSTERBELCHERTOWN, MA1$99
BAREKMAN, CHERYLRETIRED Β· RETIREDEULESS, TX1$62
KROL, JUDITHRETIRED Β· RETIREDPAULDEN, AZ3$56
JOHNSON, SUSANRETIRED Β· RETIREDPHOENIX, AZ1$52
SCRATCHARD, JOHNSILVA GUARD INC Β· ARBORISTYARDLEY, PA1$52
STURTZ, MARKRETIRED Β· RETIREDGWINN, MI1$52
PAULAT, HELMUT GRETIRED Β· RETIREDBOLTON, MA2$52
SINGER, RAYRETIRED Β· RETIREDNAPLES, FL1$50
RAINES, RODNEYRETIRED Β· RETIREDDAYTON, OH1$50
TOMLINSON, BYRONRETIRED Β· RETIREDWALNUT CREEK, CA1$50
WASEM, ALLANSELF-EMPLOYED Β· ELITIST AESTHETEBONSALL, CA1$50
LLOYD, DENNISRETIRED Β· RETIREDFLUSHING, MI1$49
SCREWS, GREGRETIRED Β· RETIREDPORT ORCHARD, WA1$49
BUSHAW, WILLIAMTDC CONSTRUCTION Β· CONSTRUCTIONHUNTSVILLE, TX1$49
ZHOU, JUNINSILICOM Β· ITTALLAHASSEE, FL1$49
NG, TONYRETIRED Β· RETIREDCHINO HILLS, CA1$40

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$250,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,969,378fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,475,117fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$3,363fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$560,434fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$540,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$50fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,750fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$215,465fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$373,340fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,586,134fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$6,093fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$6,500fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$873,209fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$14,104fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$12,132fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$18,667fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$4,335fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$10,775fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$3,412,830fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$25,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$50,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,602,763fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$13,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$2,321,340fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$534,254fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$8,673fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$2,216,202fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$86,326fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$10,900fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$293fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$14,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$540,000fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$134fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$30,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$6,500fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$1,065fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACopposes_independently$134fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$1,519,399fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$9,000fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$349fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$6,984fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$9,975fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$26,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$15,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$105,263fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$2,248,953fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$258,979fec_ies
β€”WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACsupports_independently$1,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$4,699fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$14,850fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$19,256fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$4,159fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$5,376fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$21,202fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$8,594fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$8,288fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$3,809fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$703,700fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$235,000fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$14,675fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$18,171fec_ies
β€”WINSENATEopposes_independently$470,000fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$1,875fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$2,575fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$2,591fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$1,250fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$2,600fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$2,575fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$9,109fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$33fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,193fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDsupports_independently$5,182fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONsupports_independently$7,772fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONsupports_independently$15,545fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONsupports_independently$2,591fec_ies
β€”SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTIONsupports_independently$2,600fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$524fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$880fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$229fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$714fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$214fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$1,382fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$1,208fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$1,025fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$1,943fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$316fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$200fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$250fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$1,360fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$783fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$307fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$336fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$310fec_ies
β€”RED SENATEsupports_independently$121fec_ies

Outbound (2)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”principal_candidate_ofLAKE FOR AZ SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2024β€”candidate_committees
β€”principal_candidate_ofKARI LAKE FOR SENATEβ€”candidate_committees

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