LAKE, KARI
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S4AZ00220- Internal id
08293607-02dc-4c1c-ae80-da529bb3339f- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 7,378,838 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $79,964 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $42,503 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.464 |
| Race | White alone | 59.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 31.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 74.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 19.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 56.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.0% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.53 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $394,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,543 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 64.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 66.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $365,326 | $112,032 | $471,508 | $1,007,764 | $217,274 |
| 2024 | $26,252,199 | $26,033,986 | $218,213 | $696,535 | $23,239,868 |
Elections
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
Committees
- KARI LAKE FOR SENATE β principal Β· type S
- LAKE FOR AZ SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2024 β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $2,088,787 | $30,253,381 | 413 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $1,000 | MILEAGE (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $293 | MILEAGE (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $134 | MILEAGE (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | oppose | $134 | MILEAGE (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $1,065 | CANVASSING (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $18,667 | CANVASSING (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $14,104 | CANVASSING (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | support | $349 | MILEAGE (ESTIMATE) |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $9,000 | Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $560,434 | Digital Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $4,699 | Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $2,216,202 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $12,132 | Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $10,775 | Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $250,000 | Digital Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $50 | Online Content & Production - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $1,750 | Online Content & Production - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $8,594 | Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $703,700 | Digital Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $18,171 | Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $2,321,340 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $3,412,830 | Media Buy - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $3,363 | Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $13,000 | Digital Media Production Costs - Estimate |
| β | WINSENATE | oppose | $373,340 | Digital Media Buy - Estimate |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | THE HAWKEYE PAC | 24K | $-5,000 |
| 2025-04-02 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $206 |
| 2025-04-02 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $472 |
| 2025-04-02 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $447 |
| 2025-04-02 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $542 |
| 2025-04-02 | PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES | 24A | $815 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee KARI LAKE FOR SENATE.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEA, KEVIN | SFC Β· SALES | CARROLLTON, TX | 1 | $100 |
| MILLER, GEORGE | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | LAKEWOOD, CO | 1 | $100 |
| MAREK, SCOTT | DSM HOIST INC Β· CRANE INSPECTION SERVICE | NORWALK, IA | 1 | $100 |
| POLK, JOHN | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | ALBUQUERQUE, NM | 1 | $99 |
| BOHANNON, JIM | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | WILLCOX, AZ | 1 | $99 |
| PORTER, RAYMOND | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | DUMFRIES, VA | 1 | $99 |
| GORNIK, DAVE MR | EMC2 GROUP Β· COO | MESA, AZ | 1 | $99 |
| ANDERSON, CHARLES | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | DEARBORN, MI | 1 | $99 |
| SMITH, ARTHUR | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL | 1 | $99 |
| BIRMINGHAM, BRIAN | BDBIRMINGHAMCOM Β· PUBLIC INSURANCE ADJUSTER | BELCHERTOWN, MA | 1 | $99 |
| BAREKMAN, CHERYL | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | EULESS, TX | 1 | $62 |
| KROL, JUDITH | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | PAULDEN, AZ | 3 | $56 |
| JOHNSON, SUSAN | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | PHOENIX, AZ | 1 | $52 |
| SCRATCHARD, JOHN | SILVA GUARD INC Β· ARBORIST | YARDLEY, PA | 1 | $52 |
| STURTZ, MARK | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | GWINN, MI | 1 | $52 |
| PAULAT, HELMUT G | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | BOLTON, MA | 2 | $52 |
| SINGER, RAY | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | NAPLES, FL | 1 | $50 |
| RAINES, RODNEY | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | DAYTON, OH | 1 | $50 |
| TOMLINSON, BYRON | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | WALNUT CREEK, CA | 1 | $50 |
| WASEM, ALLAN | SELF-EMPLOYED Β· ELITIST AESTHETE | BONSALL, CA | 1 | $50 |
| LLOYD, DENNIS | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | FLUSHING, MI | 1 | $49 |
| SCREWS, GREG | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | PORT ORCHARD, WA | 1 | $49 |
| BUSHAW, WILLIAM | TDC CONSTRUCTION Β· CONSTRUCTION | HUNTSVILLE, TX | 1 | $49 |
| ZHOU, JUN | INSILICOM Β· IT | TALLAHASSEE, FL | 1 | $49 |
| NG, TONY | RETIRED Β· RETIRED | CHINO HILLS, CA | 1 | $40 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $250,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,969,378 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,475,117 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $3,363 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $560,434 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $540,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $215,465 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $373,340 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,586,134 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $6,093 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $6,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $873,209 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $14,104 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $12,132 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $18,667 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $4,335 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $10,775 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $3,412,830 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $25,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $50,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,602,763 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $13,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $2,321,340 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $534,254 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $8,673 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $2,216,202 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $86,326 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $10,900 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $293 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $14,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $540,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $134 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $6,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $1,065 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $134 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $1,519,399 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $9,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $349 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $6,984 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $9,975 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $26,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $15,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $105,263 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $2,248,953 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $258,979 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | supports_independently | $1,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $4,699 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $14,850 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $19,256 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $4,159 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $5,376 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $21,202 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $8,594 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $8,288 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $3,809 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $703,700 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $235,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $14,675 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $18,171 | fec_ies | |
| β | WINSENATE | opposes_independently | $470,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $1,875 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,575 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,591 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $1,250 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,575 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $9,109 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $33 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,193 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $5,182 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION | supports_independently | $7,772 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION | supports_independently | $15,545 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION | supports_independently | $2,591 | fec_ies | |
| β | SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION | supports_independently | $2,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $524 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $880 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $229 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $714 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $214 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $1,382 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $1,208 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $1,025 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $1,943 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $316 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $200 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $250 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $1,360 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $783 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $307 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $336 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $310 | fec_ies | |
| β | RED SENATE | supports_independently | $121 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | LAKE FOR AZ SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2024 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | KARI LAKE FOR SENATE | β | candidate_committees |