ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON
R · senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6IA00314- Internal id
579df66d-133c-4235-b9ea-5606182e9635- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Iowa. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 3,210,507 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $75,059 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,877 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 84.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.9% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 90.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.7% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.5% |
| Household | Family households | 61.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.36 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $208,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $972 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.6% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.5% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 76.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $7,267,266 | $2,679,199 | $6,516,143 | $0 | $3,969,586 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
- 2026 general senate · IA-S — running
Committees
- ASHLEY FOR IOWA — principal · type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $975,316 | $0 | 15 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI… | support | $10,956 | DOORHANGER PRODUCTION |
| — | AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI… | support | $300,000 | MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| — | AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI… | support | $14,000 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-05-06 | AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI… | support | $1,800 | MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2026-03-31 | SLF PAC | support | $78,750 | POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION |
| 2026-03-31 | SLF PAC | support | $181,000 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
| 2026-02-19 | SLF PAC | support | $6,667 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
| 2026-02-02 | SLF PAC | support | $60,363 | POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION |
| 2026-02-02 | SLF PAC | support | $100,000 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
| 2026-01-29 | MISSION IOWA | support | $10,677 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2026-01-09 | CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. | support | $18,205 | TV/RADIO PRODUCTION |
| 2026-01-08 | CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. | support | $141,511 | TV/RADIO PLACEMENT |
| 2025-12-11 | SLF PAC | support | $1,600 | ONLINE ADVERTISING / TEXT MESSAGING |
| 2025-11-24 | CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. | support | $24,787 | PRINTING / POSTAGE |
| 2025-10-22 | SLF PAC | support | $25,000 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee ASHLEY FOR IOWA.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SABIN, ANDREW | SABIN METAL CORPORATION · C.E.O. | NEW YORK, NY | 2 | $10,500 |
| REHNERT, GEOFFREY | AUDAX GROUP · CO-FOUNDER CO-CEO | BOSTON, MA | 2 | $10,500 |
| WINRED | — | ARLINGTON, VA | 2 | $8,643 |
| EMERY, RODNEY | STEADFAST · CEO | IRVINE, CA | 1 | $5,000 |
| WEBER, TIMOTHY J. MR. | ANDERSON WEBER INC · AUTO DEALER | DUBUQUE, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| YODER, M. DAVID | RETIRED · RETIRED | MENIFEE, CA | 1 | $3,500 |
| GEARON, JOHN | RETIRED · RETIRED | ATLANTA, GA | 1 | $3,500 |
| GLUECK, KENNETH | ORACLE CORPORATION · EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT | WEST PALM BEACH, FL | 1 | $3,500 |
| BARKER, DAVID | — | IOWA CITY, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| LEFFELL, MICHAEL | PORTAGE PARTNERS · INVESTOR | SCARSDALE, NY | 1 | $3,500 |
| NICOLLS, C. ROBERT II | MONARCH & MANAGEMENT GROUP · OWNER | FRANKTOWN, CO | 1 | $3,500 |
| WATERMAN, BOB | LANE & WATERMAN LLP · LAWYER | BETTENDORF, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| FREDERICK, JOHN C. | EYE SURGEON ASSOCIATES · PHYSICIAN | LE CLAIRE, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| BRONFMAN, JEREMY | LINCOLN AVENUE COMMUNITIES · CEO | SANTA MONICA, CA | 1 | $3,000 |
| JONES, KIM | — | OKOBOJI, IA | 1 | $2,500 |
| TEPAS, GARY | — | NAPLES, FL | 1 | $2,000 |
| ORTIZ, RAY | — | ESPANOLA, NM | 1 | $1,505 |
| DOLL-SHEEDER, LAUREN | HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER | GUTHRIE CENTER, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| ROWLES, CRAIG | DR. · AGRICULTURE | CLIVE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MCCOY, MICHAEL ROBERT | NCMIC · C.E.O. | WEST DES MOINES, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| CARLSON, GARY L. | RETIRED · RETIRED | BETTENDORF, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MICKELSON, JOHN | MIDWEST GROWTH PARTNERS · FUND MANAGER | CLIVE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| RYAN, NICK | CONCORDIA GROUP · CEO | WAUKEE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| BUSH, GREGORY | MCCARTHY-BUSH CORP · CEO | LECLAIRE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MAGGIE'S LIST | — | TALLAHASSEE, FL | 1 | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | ASHLEY FOR IOWA | — | candidate_committees |