VALLEJO, MICHELLE
D · house
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- FEC candidate id
H2TX15203- Internal id
a25694f2-1644-4bad-8ccb-1f84706bd691- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), TX-15. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 790,465 |
| People | Median age | 33 |
| Income | Median household income | $59,751 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $27,084 |
| Income | In poverty | 23.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 6.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.480 |
| Race | White alone | 33.9% |
| Race | Black alone | 1.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.2% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 81.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 52.4% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 22.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 32.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 66.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 50.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 22.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 7.3% |
| Household | Family households | 75.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 3.06 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 35.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $169,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $992 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 65.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.7% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 8.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 4.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 87.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 10.1% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.2% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $16,393 | $1,420 | $100,000 | $0 |
| 2024 | $2,388,899 | $2,382,803 | $17,813 | $100,000 | $1,842,672 |
| 2022 | $2,346,631 | $2,334,914 | $11,717 | $100,000 | $1,660,035 |
Elections
Committees
- MICHELLE VALLEJO FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $120,505 | $0 | 52 |
| 2022 | $728,427 | $1,603,151 | 103 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $949 | text messages |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $100 | office rent/phne bank |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $348 | staffing services phone bank, ck. 9045 |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $949 | text messages |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $1,337 | text messaging |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $404 | text messaging |
| 2024-11-03 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $250 | robo calls M. Vallejo |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $200 | place Vallejo yard signs |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $580 | Reimburse for CC paymen to Gravis for L. Ramirez and Fabiol… |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $500 | robo-Michelle/Small counties/L. Ramirez & F. Escalon as mes… |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,373 | SMS communications |
| 2024-11-01 | LUPE VOTES | support | $10,000 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $5,954 | Michelle Vallejo yard signs |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $90 | email blast for M. Vallejo |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $5,954 | Michelle Vallejo yard signs |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $1,420 | SMS communications |
| 2024-10-26 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $10,000 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-24 | LUPE VOTES | support | $42,352 | Digital ad production and placement |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | support | $2,500 | Digital advertising |
| 2024-10-23 | LUPE VOTES | support | $6,206 | Billboard design and placement |
| 2024-10-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $10,000 | text messaging --Hidalgo County |
| 2024-10-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $10,000 | text messaging --Hidalgo County |
| 2024-10-21 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $504 | text messagingTex. Ct. of Appeals. 246.30 and 257.37 |
| 2024-10-21 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $590 | text messaging. |
| 2024-10-14 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMM… | support | $900 | robo-calling services |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-1,500 | pas2 | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $949 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $348 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $404 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $1,337 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $949 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-05 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $100 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-03 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $250 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $200 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $580 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-02 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,373 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-11-01 | LUPE VOTES | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $90 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $1,420 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $5,954 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-29 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $5,954 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-26 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-24 | LUPE VOTES | supports_independently | $42,352 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | LUPE VOTES | supports_independently | $6,206 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $10,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $504 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-21 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $590 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $900 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $900 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $900 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-14 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $900 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $36 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-09 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $4 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $168 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $61 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-10-02 | WORKING AMERICA | supports_independently | $125 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $328 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $86 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $123 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $328 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $86 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-09-09 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $123 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-28 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $189 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-28 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $189 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-08-28 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $189 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-07-23 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $170 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $170 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-06-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $170 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-05-30 | TEXAS DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2024-02-21 | LUPE VOTES | supports_independently | $1,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-21 | NORMA TORRES FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $281 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-17 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $30,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-15 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $600 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-15 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $2,400 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-10 | INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS | contributed_to | $898 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-09 | TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | HIDALGO COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $3,211 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | MOMSRISING TOGETHER | contributed_to | $457 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-08 | AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AFL-CIO | contributed_to | $289 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $354 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $41 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | contributed_to | $6,166 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | OCCUPY DEMOCRATS ELECTION FUND | contributed_to | $2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC | contributed_to | $200 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-07 | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $6,166 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-06 | CLF | contributed_to | $2,150 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-04 | SHORE PAC | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-04 | MOMSRISING TOGETHER | contributed_to | $465 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-04 | WIN THE HOUSE NOW PAC | contributed_to | $900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $90,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-03 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | supports_independently | $90,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-03 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | supports_independently | $600 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-02 | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $27,863 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-02 | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | contributed_to | $27,862 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-02 | SCHIFF FOR SENATE | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-02 | DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC | contributed_to | $25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $831 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $14,190 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $4,168 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $4,168 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | OUR FIGHT OUR FUTURE | contributed_to | $500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | FRIENDS OF DON BEYER | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $8,331 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | supports_independently | $831 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | SCHIFF FOR SENATE | contributed_to | $-2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | supports_independently | $2,400 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $8,331 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-01 | UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC | contributed_to | $831 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC | contributed_to | $1,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | MOMSRISING TOGETHER | supports_independently | $2,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-10-31 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | contributed_to | $30,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | DEMOCRACY ENGINE, INC., PAC | contributed_to | $10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | UNITED STEELWORKERS POLITICAL ACTION FUND | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | MOMSRISING TOGETHER | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-10-31 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | supports_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | MICHELLE VALLEJO FOR CONGRESS | — | candidate_committees |